In a significant turn of events, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has achieved a resounding victory in the recent general elections, leading to cautious optimism from India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s congratulatory message to BNP leader Tarique Rahman, emphasising a commitment to a “democratic, progressive and inclusive” partnership, signals a potential thaw in relations that have soured over the past few years. With the backdrop of Sheikh Hasina’s exiled leadership and a shifting political landscape in Bangladesh, the question arises: can India recalibrate its approach to this historically complex relationship?
A Fresh Start in Bilateral Relations
Following the BNP’s electoral success, Modi’s welcoming tone reflects India’s strategic interest in maintaining robust ties with its neighbour. The recent political upheaval has created a vacuum after the Awami League, led by Hasina, was barred from contesting the elections, leaving a landscape rife with opportunity for both parties. Modi’s statement that he looks forward to enhancing the “multifaceted relationship” between India and Bangladesh hints at a readiness to engage with the new government.
This optimism, however, is tempered by a history of mistrust. The BNP’s past governance, particularly during its coalition with the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, led to strained relations. The years of BNP rule were characterised by increased tensions, particularly concerning issues such as border security and the treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. Past incidents, including the 2004 arms seizure in Chittagong, have added layers of complexity to India’s approach to Bangladesh.
The Shadow of Sheikh Hasina
Currently residing in exile in Delhi, Sheikh Hasina’s political future looms large over the new BNP administration. Her regime was marked by significant security cooperation with India, which facilitated a strategic alignment against common adversaries. However, her absence complicates any potential rapprochement. Hasina faces a death sentence in absentia related to the violent crackdown during the 2024 security turmoil, which claimed around 1,400 lives.
As the BNP seeks to establish its own identity, Rahman’s assertion of “Bangladesh before everything” suggests a desire for greater autonomy in foreign policy, distancing itself from the previous administration’s perceived alignment with India. Yet, the BNP’s ability to navigate this independence while maintaining constructive relations with Delhi will be a critical test of its governance.
The Regional Context
The BNP’s win comes at a time when Bangladesh is actively re-engaging with Pakistan, a country that was previously seen as a strategic rival to India. The resumption of direct flights and recent high-level exchanges between Dhaka and Islamabad signal a warming of ties that could alter the regional balance of power. Analysts caution that while Bangladesh’s sovereignty allows for such engagement, it also poses risks for India, which has historically viewed Pakistan’s influence in Bangladesh with suspicion.
Security remains a crucial element in the India-Bangladesh relationship. Both nations conduct joint military exercises and maintain a robust defence dialogue, highlighting the importance of cooperation amid rising tensions. Experts suggest that the BNP is unlikely to revoke these security arrangements, as they serve mutual interests.
The Path Forward for India-Bangladesh Relations
Moving forward, India must navigate its relationship with the BNP with care. The challenge lies in balancing its strategic interests while fostering an environment of trust. Analysts argue that India should take the initiative in outreach, recognising the BNP’s electoral mandate and engaging constructively to build a sustainable partnership.
India’s historical mistrust of the BNP could hinder progress if not addressed. Observers advocate for a focus on pragmatic engagement rather than a fixation on the past, suggesting that a new chapter in bilateral ties could be written if both parties exhibit restraint and reciprocity.
Why it Matters
The outcome of this political transition in Bangladesh holds significant implications for regional stability in South Asia. As India seeks to recalibrate its approach, the dynamics of its relationship with a BNP-led government could reshape the geopolitical landscape. A successful reset could lead to enhanced cooperation on security, trade, and cultural exchange, benefiting both nations. Conversely, failure to manage this transition could exacerbate existing tensions and hinder regional integration efforts, reinforcing the need for strategic foresight in diplomatic engagements.
