As tensions escalate in the Middle East, China finds itself in a precarious position, balancing its energy needs and geopolitical ambitions against the backdrop of a war that threatens to disrupt its economic stability. With thousands of Communist Party delegates convening in Beijing to outline the future direction of the world’s second-largest economy, the implications of this conflict extend far beyond the region, potentially affecting China’s investments globally.
Energy Security at Stake
At present, China has sufficient oil reserves to sustain its energy needs for several months, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain. The conflict in the Middle East, particularly if it continues to destabilise vital shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, poses a significant threat to China’s energy security. Philip Shetler-Jones from the Royal United Services Institute remarks, “A prolonged period of turmoil and insecurity in the Middle East will disrupt other regions of importance for China.”
This disruption could reverberate throughout Africa, which has benefitted from steady investments from Gulf nations. Should these financial flows dwindle due to the ongoing conflict, wider instability could ensue, undermining China’s broader economic interests.
A Fragile Relationship with Iran
Historically, the relationship between China and Iran has been viewed through the lens of strategic partnership. Following Xi Jinping’s visit to Tehran in 2016, a 25-year strategic agreement was established, promising substantial Chinese investment in return for oil. However, analysts suggest that actual investments have been limited, with much of the oil trade operating under the radar.
In 2025, China imported approximately 1.38 million barrels of Iranian crude daily, which constituted around 12% of its total imports. Yet, there are suspicions that many of these shipments were masked as Malaysian oil to obscure their origins. Reports indicate significant quantities of Iranian oil are currently in floating or bonded storage in Chinese ports, highlighting the complex and often opaque nature of these transactions.
Despite the apparent camaraderie, the relationship is fundamentally transactional, lacking a deep ideological foundation. Professor Kerry Brown from King’s College London points out that any cooperation is largely driven by mutual benefit rather than shared values. “China’s almost ‘divide and rule’ strategy was sometimes well-served by Iran being a constant irritant to the US,” he explains, indicating that this relationship is tenuous at best.
China’s Diplomatic Balancing Act
The ongoing conflict has compelled China to adopt a cautious diplomatic stance. Following the outbreak of hostilities, Beijing issued a muted condemnation of the violence and called for a ceasefire. Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the actions of the US and Israel as “unacceptable,” particularly the assassination of a sovereign leader.
Such incidents have underscored the limitations of China’s influence in the region, as it finds itself sidelined while the US asserts its military might. Shetler-Jones observes, “In terms of military balance, the US is demonstrating what being a superpower really means,” suggesting that China remains unequipped to counter such aggressive actions effectively.
In response, China is attempting to position itself as a stabilising force, engaging with countries like Oman and France to mediate discussions around the conflict. The Chinese government has also announced plans to send a special envoy to the Middle East, signalling its intent to play a more proactive role in regional diplomacy.
The Uncertainty of US-China Relations
China’s strategic calculations are further complicated by the impending visit of US President Donald Trump, which is anticipated to occur later this month. Although Beijing has refrained from directly critiquing Trump’s administration in relation to its actions in Iran, the unpredictable nature of US foreign policy adds a layer of uncertainty to China’s approach.
Shetler-Jones notes that this visit may provide insights into how Trump’s administration might respond to other flashpoints, such as Taiwan. “To the extent this war proves unpopular, it might contribute to a growing trend of ‘restraint’ in US foreign and security policy,” he suggests. Such a shift could grant China more leeway to pursue its interests without the overshadowing influence of US intervention.
While the crisis in the Middle East poses risks, some voices within China view it as an opportunity to portray Washington as the aggressor. The People’s Liberation Army has leveraged social media to paint the US as warmongers, yet the unpredictable behaviour of the Trump administration also creates anxiety for Beijing, which prefers a stable global order.
Why it Matters
The current upheaval in the Middle East is more than a regional conflict; it is a pivotal moment for China, potentially reshaping its economic and geopolitical strategy. As it navigates the turbulent waters of international relations, the implications for global energy markets, trade routes, and diplomatic alliances are profound. China’s response will not only reflect its immediate interests but also signal its long-term vision for a multipolar world, where it seeks to assert itself as a key player amidst the shifting dynamics of global power.