As the Conservative Party grapples with the fallout from Robert Jenrick’s high-profile defection to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, party insiders are bracing for the possibility of more MPs jumping ship before the crucial English local elections in May.
The dramatic ousting of Jenrick, a former shadow justice secretary and a one-time leadership rival to party leader Kemi Badenoch, has sent shockwaves through the Tories. The move, swiftly executed to coincide with Farage’s announcement of Lord Malcolm Offord as Reform’s new Scottish leader, was a clear attempt by Badenoch to regain control of her party and quash ongoing speculation about her own future.
However, Farage’s warning that MPs have until May to join his party has sparked fears of a potential exodus, with the Conservatives maintaining a watchlist of potential defectors, mostly comprising critics of Badenoch’s leadership or former supporters of Jenrick’s leadership bid.
“It could be game over by 7 May,” one senior Tory source admitted to The Update Desk, reflecting the party’s growing concern over the situation.
The fallout from Jenrick’s defection has also exposed divisions within Badenoch’s inner circle, with her husband, Hamish, taking the peer’s departure particularly personally. There have been calls from some Badenoch allies for a “slash and burn” approach to dealing with defectors, similar to that used against former party chair Sir Jake Berry and MP Danny Kruger. However, the advice has been that “nobody knows who this bloke is,” referring to Offord.
Nonetheless, the party appears to be adopting a more nuanced approach, with a senior Conservative source suggesting that they need to handle each case on an individual basis. “Some like Zahawi, we should be saying ‘good bloody riddance, you’re welcome to him Nigel!’ Others we should leave a way back for,” the source said.
Badenoch has insisted that no more senior Tories will switch sides, but it is clear that the party’s central headquarters and the leader’s top team know that Jenrick won’t be the last Conservative defector to Reform. The challenge now is to stem the tide of departures and focus on improving the party’s polling and Badenoch’s public profile.
Meanwhile, Reform is ramping up its efforts to woo wavering Conservatives, with senior figures reportedly wining and dining MPs thought to be considering a move. The party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, is said to have tried to persuade a close Jenrick ally to join, but the MP ultimately decided to remain with the Conservatives, describing the party as their “home.”
As the Tories grapple with the fallout from Jenrick’s defection and the looming prospect of more departures, the party’s leadership will need to navigate these turbulent waters with a delicate balance of firmness and flexibility in order to retain its grip on power.