**
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised significant concerns regarding food security across Africa, where reliance on imported fertilisers is exceptionally high. Experts warn that disruptions to trade routes, particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz, could have dire consequences for agricultural productivity and the cost of living on the continent. With many households already allocating substantial portions of their income to food, the situation demands urgent attention.
Fertiliser Supply Chains Under Threat
The strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the transportation of not only oil and gas but also fertiliser, a key component for agricultural production. A substantial amount of the world’s fertiliser is manufactured in the Gulf region, which benefits from abundant and inexpensive fossil gas essential for producing nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights that countries such as Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya rely heavily on imported fertiliser transported via this route, with 54%, 30%, and 26% of their supplies, respectively, coming from sea trade.
The onset of conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in fertiliser prices, compounding existing pressures on food prices and heightening the cost of living for the most vulnerable populations. With oil and gas prices also on the rise, the economic outlook for African nations appears increasingly bleak.
Economic Vulnerability in Africa
African economies are particularly susceptible to external shocks, and the current geopolitical climate is exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. According to UNCTAD, the continent’s reliance on foreign markets, coupled with volatile commodity exports, high levels of debt, and inadequate infrastructure, contributes to an environment of heightened uncertainty.
Political analyst Jervin Naidoo from Oxford Economics Africa stated, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us,” emphasising the interconnectedness of the region’s economies. Furthermore, XN Iraki, a professor at the University of Nairobi, noted that the repercussions of rising oil prices would be felt most acutely in Africa where many individuals are employed in the informal sector, characterised by unpredictable incomes.
Rama Yade, the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre, highlighted on social media that increasing oil prices create “serious economic challenges” for African governments. These administrations may be compelled to enhance subsidies or pass increased costs onto consumers, a situation that could instigate social unrest.
Government Responses to Supply Chain Disruptions
In response to the impending economic challenges, African nations are taking steps to manage their energy supplies and mitigate the impact of rising oil prices. Kenya’s Energy Minister, Opiyo Wandayi, recently confirmed that the country has secured petroleum product imports scheduled through the end of April, assuring citizens of an uninterrupted supply. Meanwhile, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed her energy ministry to bolster the nation’s strategic fuel reserves.
Ethiopia has also introduced a special fuel subsidy aimed at alleviating the economic burden on its citizens due to escalating global oil prices, while Zambia has cautioned fuel retailers against hoarding practices that could exacerbate shortages. Despite these interventions, analysts like Naidoo warn that such measures may only provide temporary relief and may not be sufficient to address the long-term ramifications of sustained high prices.
Broader Implications for Trade
The conflict not only disrupts the importation of essential agricultural inputs but also affects African exports to the Middle East. Kenya’s Agriculture Minister, Mutahi Kagwe, recently acknowledged that the war has hindered the export of key products such as meat and tea to this critical market, further complicating the region’s agricultural landscape.
While the conflict poses significant challenges, it may also lead to increased revenues for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, as other countries seek alternative sources amid rising global prices. However, for the majority of African nations, the immediate focus remains on ensuring food security and maintaining economic stability.
Why it Matters
The implications of the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict extend far beyond its borders, reverberating through Africa’s agricultural sector and threatening food security for millions. As nations grapple with rising commodity prices and disrupted supply chains, the potential for social unrest looms large. Addressing these challenges will require a concerted effort from governments, international organisations, and the private sector to safeguard the livelihoods of those most at risk and ensure the stability of food supplies across the continent.
