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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the hostilities involving Iran, has severely disrupted supply chains, placing farmers across Africa in a precarious position. With a significant reliance on imported fertilisers sourced from the Gulf region, African nations are bracing for heightened food insecurity and economic strain as essential agricultural inputs become increasingly difficult to obtain.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Experts warn that the war has substantially affected trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route not only for oil and gas but also for fertilisers. This waterway is responsible for transporting approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser. The implications for African countries are dire; many depend heavily on these imports to sustain agricultural productivity. For instance, a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that Sudan receives 54% of its fertiliser via this route, while Somalia and Kenya rely on it for 30% and 26%, respectively.
The Gulf region is a powerhouse for fertiliser production, benefitting from abundant and inexpensive fossil gas, which is essential for the creation of nitrogen-rich fertilisers like urea. Additionally, the region generates substantial sulphur, a key component in phosphate fertilisers. However, since the onset of the conflict last month, the prices of fertilisers have surged, exacerbating cost pressures on food and living expenses, particularly hitting the most vulnerable populations.
Economic Impacts on Africa
African economies are particularly susceptible to external shocks, with UNCTAD noting that the continent’s reliance on foreign markets, coupled with volatile commodity exports, high public debt, and inadequate infrastructure, heightens this vulnerability. Governments, already grappling with budget constraints, find themselves in a precarious situation as supply chain disruptions threaten to undermine economic stability.
Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, articulated the widespread impact of such shocks, stating, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us.” The informal sector, which employs a significant portion of the African workforce, will feel the brunt of rising oil prices, as noted by XN Iraki, a professor at the University of Nairobi. He highlighted that many individuals in this sector face uncertain incomes, making them particularly susceptible to inflationary pressures.
Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre, further emphasised the serious economic challenges posed by increasing oil prices. Governments may be compelled to either raise subsidies or transfer the costs to consumers, potentially igniting social unrest.
Responses Across the Continent
In anticipation of these challenges, several African nations are taking proactive measures. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, announced that the country has arranged for petroleum imports to ensure supply continuity until the end of April. In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed the energy ministry to bolster strategic fuel reserves. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has introduced fuel subsidies to mitigate the impact of soaring global prices, and Zambia has cautioned fuel retailers against hoarding.
Despite these initiatives, Naidoo warned that existing mechanisms may not sufficiently shield populations from the long-term repercussions of escalating oil prices. The continent is still reeling from the disruptions experienced during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which had similarly destabilised supply chains.
Agricultural Exports at Risk
The ramifications of the conflict extend beyond imports, affecting African exports to the Middle East. Kenyan Agriculture Minister Mutahi Kagwe recently acknowledged that the war has disrupted the export of key commodities, including meat and tea, to this vital market. These disruptions could have a cascading effect on local economies and food security.
Why it Matters
The intertwining of conflict and global supply chains underscores the fragility of food security in Africa. As farmers grapple with soaring costs and diminishing supplies of essential inputs, the potential for widespread socio-economic instability grows. The situation highlights the urgent need for African nations to diversify their supply chains and invest in sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate future shocks. The consequences of the Middle East conflict are not merely regional; they resonate globally, reminding us of the interconnected nature of our economies and the critical importance of collective resilience in the face of adversity.