The aviation industry’s reliance on fossil fuels poses a significant challenge in the fight against climate change, with sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) touted as a potential solution. However, a new report warns that current production capabilities will not suffice to meet future demand, raising urgent questions about the sector’s ability to decarbonise effectively.
The Limitations of Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Sustainable aviation fuels, which can be produced from organic materials or synthetic processes, are seen as the primary alternative to conventional kerosene. However, a recent analysis by Aéro Décarbo, an association of aerospace professionals, and The Shift Project, a non-profit think tank, highlights a stark reality: even with the most optimistic production scenarios, SAFs cannot be generated quickly enough or in sufficient quantities to keep pace with rising air traffic.
The report states, “SAFs, particularly e-SAFs, are crucial for the decarbonisation of aviation. Yet, they will not be deployed efficiently enough to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the near term.” Despite ongoing innovations, aviation emissions are projected to remain largely unchanged by 2050, with the industry currently accounting for 2 to 3 per cent of global CO2 emissions.
Challenges in Production
The production of bioSAF, derived from biological sources such as agricultural waste and used cooking oils, is limited by the availability of sustainable biomass. Competing demands for land and water resources, coupled with food production needs, restrict the amount of biological material that can be diverted to aviation fuel. The report indicates, “Expanding biofuel production risks exacerbating pressures on biodiversity and water supplies.”
On the other hand, e-SAF production faces a different hurdle. “The constraint lies not in biological factors, but in the supply of electricity,” says Loïc Bonifacio, vice-president of Aéro Décarbo. To entirely replace current kerosene consumption with synthetic fuels would necessitate approximately 10,000 terawatt-hours of electricity each year—about a third of the world’s total electricity generation.
Emission Projections and Future Scenarios
Projections from the Air Transport Action Group reveal that even with ambitious SAF adoption, aviation will still consume nearly the same amount of fossil kerosene by 2050 as it does today. “The growth in air traffic outpaces technological advancements in sustainable fuel production,” Bonifacio explains. As a result, emissions are expected to peak around 2030, only to decline to about 9 per cent below current levels by mid-century—far from the targets set by the Paris Agreement.
To align with a 1.7 degrees Celsius warming limit, global air traffic would need to decrease by at least 15 per cent within the next five years, reverting to levels seen in the early 2010s. A more aggressive 1.5-degree trajectory would demand a staggering 60 per cent reduction by 2035.
Rethinking Air Travel
The implications of these findings suggest that the aviation sector must fundamentally reconsider its growth trajectory. Bonifacio emphasises that while sustainable aviation fuels offer a pathway forward, they currently lack the capacity to meet demand. “In the meantime, we must address the volume of air traffic and the regulatory frameworks that govern it,” he states.
Encouragingly, moderating growth in air travel does not necessarily preclude affordable options. However, airport expansions—especially in wealthier nations where aviation usage is already high—should be paused until SAF production capabilities can support increased demand. “We must critically evaluate airport expansion projects and promotional efforts for air travel in light of both climate change and geopolitical issues surrounding fossil fuel supplies,” Bonifacio concludes.
Why it Matters
The findings of this report underscore a critical crossroads for the aviation industry. As global air traffic continues to rise, the urgent need for sustainable practices becomes more pronounced. Without a strategic shift in how air travel is managed and a significant increase in SAF production, the aviation sector risks undermining broader climate goals. Addressing these challenges now is essential not only for environmental sustainability but also for the future viability of air travel as a whole.
