Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has long harbored ambitions of leading the Labour Party, and recent events have presented him with a potential opportunity to make a Westminster comeback. However, the path ahead is fraught with obstacles that Burnham must carefully navigate.
Burnham has previously contested Labour leadership elections in 2010 and 2015, establishing himself as a prominent figure within the party. His regional profile as the “King of the North” has only further bolstered his national standing. In the lead-up to last year’s Labour conference, Burnham even hinted that some MPs were urging him to challenge the Prime Minister, a comment that overshadowed the party’s annual gathering and angered Downing Street.
The stumbling block, however, has always been Burnham’s lack of a parliamentary seat. This led to speculation of a secret pact with suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne to vacate his Gorton and Denton seat, allowing Burnham to run. But Gwynne quickly dismissed the idea, stating that “the route to No10 is not going to be through Gorton & Denton.”
That has now changed, as Gwynne has announced his resignation from the Commons, paving the way for a by-election. Burnham now faces a critical decision – whether to run for the seat and potentially give up his position as Greater Manchester Mayor.
Even if Burnham decides to pursue the parliamentary route, he will face a series of hurdles. The Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which is responsible for selecting the candidate, is dominated by Keir Starmer loyalists who could block Burnham’s bid. Such a move would likely provoke a “huge row” within the party, according to one Labour MP from the left.
Moreover, the by-election itself will be a significant challenge. With Labour’s popularity slumping in national polls, opposition parties are poised to throw everything they have at the Gorton and Denton seat in an attempt to deliver a major political upset. Reform UK has already vowed to “throw everything at” the contest, while the charismatic Green Party leader Zack Polansky may also enter the fray.
Burnham may relish the opportunity to prove his mettle on the national stage, but the decision he faces is a complex one. Balancing his regional power base as Greater Manchester Mayor with the allure of a Westminster return will require careful consideration and strategic maneuvering. The road ahead is far from certain, and Burnham must weigh the potential rewards against the significant obstacles that lie in his path.
