A recent report by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) highlights significant challenges for Canada as it grapples with an escalating demand for electricity. The assessment, released last week, suggests that the power grid may struggle to cope with extreme weather events, raising alarms about the reliability of electricity supply across several provinces.
Risk Levels Across Provinces
According to Jim Robb, CEO of NERC, provinces such as Quebec, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Maritime regions are classified as having an elevated risk regarding their electrical systems. While these areas can manage electricity demand under typical conditions, they may lack sufficient reserves during extreme weather incidents. “Under normal circumstances, they are fine,” Robb stated in an interview with Global News. “But in the face of extreme circumstances, they would not maintain the same level of reserves.”
The report highlights that although the bulk power system has operated without significant issues in recent years, historical data suggests that failures often coincide with severe weather conditions. Robb cited winter storm Elliott in December 2022, which caused extensive outages in the northeastern United States, as a pertinent example. He noted that regions previously marked as low-risk were nearly overwhelmed, indicating a precarious balance in power supply.
Future Projections for Demand
NERC’s findings paint a concerning picture of future electricity demand across North America, forecasting a surge in summer peak electricity needs by 224 gigawatts over the next decade—an increase of more than 69 percent from current estimates. Winter demand is projected to rise by 246 gigawatts during the same period. To put this into perspective, a single gigawatt can power a large city like San Francisco, underscoring the scale of the anticipated demand.
Robb explained that this rising demand is driven largely by trends in electrification, industrialisation, and the expansion of data centres. While the United States sees data centres as the primary force behind increased power needs, Canada’s surge is more closely linked to industrial growth. “The reality is that demand is outpacing the development of new resources,” he added, emphasizing the urgency for strategic planning.
Regional Responses to Electricity Challenges
In light of these findings, provinces are actively seeking solutions to bolster their energy infrastructure. For instance, Nova Scotia Power recently urged residents to conserve energy as extreme cold weather pushed the grid to its limits. On January 26, the province faced record electricity demand due to temperatures plummeting to -28°C, prompting fears of power outages. Fortunately, the situation stabilised without resorting to rolling blackouts.
Hydro-Québec remains optimistic about meeting winter demands, with spokesperson Cendrix Bouchard asserting that the province successfully handled high electricity usage during recent cold spells. He also noted the utility’s long-term Action 2035 plan, which allocates $10 billion over the next decade to improve energy efficiency and manage peak demands.
New Brunswick’s NB Power echoed the need for urgent action, highlighting a critical electricity shortfall exacerbated by rapid population growth and increased electrification. The utility is exploring renewable energy sources and storage options to address these challenges.
Systemic Challenges and Future Planning
Despite the proactive measures being taken by various provinces, Robb cautioned that meeting future demand will require significantly more generation capacity than currently planned. This task is complicated by supply chain issues, the need for fuel infrastructure, and the integration of more renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.
NERC’s long-term reliability assessment serves as a vital tool for evaluating whether the electricity resources planned for the coming decade can meet anticipated demand. As Robb aptly put it, “We need to figure out how to build a lot more generation than what’s being talked about right now.”
Why it Matters
The implications of the NERC report are profound, not just for the energy sector but for the daily lives of Canadians. As electricity demand continues to rise, the ability to maintain a reliable power supply is crucial for public safety, economic stability, and the transition to a greener energy future. With more extreme weather events expected due to climate change, the urgency for strategic planning and investment in energy infrastructure has never been greater. The challenge ahead is not merely about generating more power; it’s about ensuring that this power is sustainable, resilient, and adaptable to the changing climate landscape.
