Cardi B’s recent cameo during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has ignited a notable dispute, leading to a formal complaint filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The ambiguity surrounding her performance has left two prominent prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, scrambling to resolve millions in wagers tied to her participation.
Ambiguity at the Halftime Show
The Super Bowl, renowned for its extravagant entertainment, featured Cardi B alongside Karol G, Young Miko, and stars like Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a dazzling “starry front porch.” While the atmosphere was electric, questions arose over whether Cardi B was actually singing during her appearance, leading to confusion among bettors. This uncertainty has prompted significant debate within the prediction market community.
Prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the outcomes of future events, rely on event contracts that represent yes-or-no propositions. Traders purchase these contracts at prices ranging from $0 to $1, reflecting their perceived probability of each event. For the Super Bowl, Kalshi saw an astonishing $47.3 million wagered on the question of who would perform at the event, while Polymarket recorded over $10 million in trading volume on a similar contract.
Dispute Over Performance Classification
Following the halftime show, Kalshi decided to settle its market based on the last price before trading paused, citing the “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance’.” This led to all bets being refunded, much to the dismay of those who wagered on her actively performing.
In contrast, Polymarket concluded that Cardi B had indeed performed, but this decision has not been without controversy. Users have contested the ruling, and a final resolution is anticipated soon. Complicating matters further, a trader who had backed a ‘Yes’ position on Kalshi has filed a complaint with the CFTC, alleging that the platform breached the Commodity Exchange Act. They are seeking $3,700 in damages due to the dispute.
Record-Breaking Trading Volumes
On the day of the Super Bowl, Kalshi reported a staggering daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion, a dramatic increase of over 2,700 per cent from the previous year’s event. The total for all Super Bowl winner futures reached $828.6 million, marking a 2,000 per cent rise from last year. However, the surge in activity also led to some deposit processing issues, prompting Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara to issue a statement acknowledging that the traffic exceeded their expectations and announcing reimbursements for affected users.
Robinhood Markets has also noted the burgeoning popularity of prediction markets. CEO Vlad Tenev expressed optimism regarding the future, stating that we are merely at the onset of a “prediction market super cycle,” which could potentially generate trillions in annual volume as major events like the Olympics and the World Cup approach.
Why it Matters
This incident highlights the growing intersection of entertainment and financial speculation, revealing how a single performance can ripple across various sectors, including finance and digital marketplaces. As prediction markets gain traction, the implications for transparency and regulation will become increasingly significant. With high stakes and millions of dollars on the line, the ongoing debate surrounding performance classification could set critical precedents for the future of wagering and event-based contracts.
