In a high-stakes diplomatic mission, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit China in a bid to reset ties and explore new economic opportunities for his country beyond its reliance on the United States. The four-day trip, the first by a Canadian leader since 2017, is being described as “consequential and historic” as Ottawa seeks to diversify its trade while navigating the delicate balance between its relationship with Beijing and Washington.
Trade will be at the forefront of Carney’s agenda, with discussions expected on areas such as agriculture and international security. The visit comes at a critical juncture, as Canada grapples with ongoing uncertainty over its trade future with its largest customer, the US. Senior Canadian officials have outlined a “bold” plan to double the country’s non-US exports over the next decade, making China’s role increasingly crucial.
However, Carney’s trip will not be without its challenges. Canada must tread carefully, seeking to expand economic ties with China without risking damage to its relationship with Donald Trump’s administration or compromising its national security and human rights commitments. The arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver in 2018 and the subsequent detention of two Canadians in China have strained bilateral relations, though all three were released in 2021.
Ahead of the visit, two Liberal MPs cut short a sponsored trip to Taiwan, citing the need to “avoid confusion with its foreign policy” amid the Prime Minister’s engagement in Beijing. This underscores the sensitivity surrounding Canada’s position on Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province.
One of Canada’s key objectives is to ease Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola that have hurt the country’s prairie farmers. These tariffs were widely seen as retaliation for Canada’s levies on Chinese electric vehicles, mirroring similar measures by the US.
For China, a successful deal with Carney would grant Beijing greater influence in a country that is on America’s doorstep. The state-run Global Times newspaper has urged Ottawa to set a foreign policy path separate from the US and exercise “strategic autonomy”.
However, the potential impact of any Canada-China agreement on the country’s relationship with the US remains a significant unknown. Canada’s economy has been hit by US tariffs, particularly on its steel, aluminium, and automotive sectors, and talks to ease these levies remain on hold.
As Canada prepares to renegotiate the long-standing North American free trade agreement with the US and Mexico, the delicate balancing act continues. Experts suggest the Americans are closely watching the Canada-China relationship, and that Ottawa is keeping Washington “well informed” of its intentions. Nonetheless, Canada is determined to pursue its own interests, even as it navigates the complex geopolitical landscape.
