China’s carbon dioxide emissions have shown a plateau for nearly two years, igniting discussions about whether this trend could signify the beginning of a substantial decline. Recent analyses indicate that the world’s largest emitter may be at a critical juncture, with its actions in the upcoming five-year plan, scheduled for March, likely to shape its future trajectory in emissions reduction.
Emissions Trends and Current Data
Recent statistics reveal that emissions dropped by approximately one per cent in the last quarter of 2025 and are estimated to have decreased by 0.3 per cent across the entire year. Notably, these levels remain slightly beneath the peak recorded in early 2024. This data is derived from a comprehensive analysis conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief, which diligently tracks energy production, fuel consumption, and industrial output to provide accurate emissions trends.
Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, remarked, “It’s clear that emissions have plateaued, but uncertainty looms over the next few years, as the government is officially targeting a peak in coal consumption around 2027. Even a plateau could lead to fluctuations year-on-year due to seasonal variations.”
The Role of Renewable Energy
Despite a significant increase in electricity demand, which surged by 520 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, the expansion of clean energy sources has effectively counterbalanced this growth. Solar energy production soared by 43 per cent, wind generation increased by 14 per cent, and nuclear power rose by eight per cent, collectively adding roughly 530 TWh to the grid—slightly exceeding the demand increase.
Consequently, coal-fired electricity generation saw a reduction of 1.9 per cent, contributing to an overall decrease of 1.5 per cent in power sector emissions. Additionally, emissions from transport and the cement sector fell by three per cent and seven per cent, respectively, indicating a positive shift towards greener alternatives.
Myllyvirta highlighted that “rapid growth in clean energy and electrified transport are key drivers behind this plateau.” He also noted that the declining demand for cement and steel, alongside shifts towards recycled steel production, could further accelerate emissions reductions in those sectors.
Energy Storage Progress
Another significant development is the remarkable advancement in energy storage, with China adding 75 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2025—outpacing the 55 GW rise in peak electricity demand for the first time. This growth in storage capacity could diminish the reliance on new coal and gas plants during periods of high demand, offering a promising avenue for stabilising emissions further.
However, the overall emissions landscape remains precarious. While the minor annual decline in emissions is encouraging, fossil fuel emissions saw a slight uptick of 0.1 per cent in 2025, primarily offset by a pronounced decrease in cement production emissions.
The chemicals sector continues to represent a significant growth area for emissions, with a reported increase of 12 per cent in 2025. This sector, while only responsible for about 13 per cent of China’s total emissions, has a disproportionate impact on overall trends.
Future Prospects and Policy Implications
The sustainability of the current plateau hinges significantly on policy decisions made in the forthcoming five-year plan. Myllyvirta emphasised the necessity for removing barriers to the continued expansion of clean energy. This includes enhancing the flexibility of power grids and coal power plants, as well as leveraging energy storage solutions to accommodate larger shares of renewable energy in the grid.
He noted, “One positive aspect is that the year-end surge in clean energy additions is likely to sustain the rise in clean power supply this year, creating a strong possibility that emissions will not rebound before the anticipated coal peak in 2027.”
China’s current position maintains that carbon dioxide emissions will peak before 2030. The emerging data suggests a plateau, yet the potential for a significant decline will become clearer in the ensuing two to three years.
Why it Matters
The plateauing of China’s emissions could represent a pivotal moment in global climate efforts, given the country’s status as the leading emitter of carbon dioxide. The decisions made in the upcoming five-year plan will not only determine the trajectory of China’s emissions but also influence global climate policies and commitments. As nations strive to mitigate climate change, China’s actions may serve as a bellwether, highlighting the critical intersection of economic growth, energy transition, and environmental responsibility.
