In a troubling escalation of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, civilian casualties have risen by 26% over the past year, according to a recent report by the NGO Action on Armed Violence (AOAV). As diplomatic efforts backed by the United States struggle to gain traction, Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified his military offensive, resulting in a significant increase in both deaths and injuries among the Ukrainian population.
Alarming Casualty Figures
The AOAV’s report reveals that in 2025, there were 14,775 casualties in Ukraine, a sharp rise from the 11,765 recorded in 2024. This includes 2,250 fatalities, marking an 11% increase from the previous year’s toll of 2,027. Additionally, the number of injuries surged to 12,525, reflecting a staggering 28% rise from 9,738 in 2024. The average casualties per incident have also climbed to 4.8, a 33% increase from the previous year, suggesting a strategic shift in Russian operations aimed at maximising civilian harm.
Diplomatic Efforts Stalled
Despite ongoing peace talks initiated by the US, which saw Ukrainian and Russian representatives convene for the first time since 2022, tangible progress remains elusive. During this period, Moscow has maintained a relentless barrage of drone and missile strikes, targeting not only military installations but also civilian infrastructure. This has included a catastrophic attack on the central city of Dnipro in June 2025, where 21 lives were lost and 314 individuals were injured, among them 38 children. As the conflict drags into 2026, attacks on energy facilities have intensified, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis as Ukraine endures one of its coldest winters in years.
The Stalemate Continues
In his first year back in office, US President Donald Trump has reiterated his desire to broker peace, claiming he could resolve the conflict “in 24 hours.” However, despite this assertion, Russian forces have shown no signs of de-escalating their military activities, with ongoing air assaults revealing a stark disregard for the safety of civilians. Trump’s repeated promises during the campaign have drawn scepticism, particularly as he later clarified that his comments were meant to be taken “figuratively” in light of the grim realities on the ground.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced his frustrations at the Munich Security Conference, lamenting that Ukraine is frequently pressured to concede ground while Russia appears to manipulate the negotiations by altering its lead negotiator. “It feels like the sides are talking about completely different things,” Zelensky stated, highlighting the significant disparities in expectations between the negotiating parties.
Global Context of Civilian Harm
The AOAV report does not solely focus on Ukraine; it broadens its analysis to include other global conflicts such as those in Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and Yemen. Dr Iain Overton, the executive director of AOAV, emphasised the grim reality that civilian suffering is a predictable consequence of warfare, particularly when explosive weapons are deployed in populated areas. He argued that even when the overall use of such weapons declines, as seen in Ukraine, civilian casualties continue to soar, underscoring the urgent need for restraint in their use.
Why it Matters
The rising toll of civilian casualties in Ukraine not only reflects the escalating brutality of the conflict but also raises profound questions about the efficacy of current diplomatic efforts. As negotiations stall and violence persists, the plight of innocent civilians remains at the forefront, highlighting an urgent need for a comprehensive strategy that prioritises human life over territorial ambitions. The global community must grapple with the implications of these trends, advocating for measures that protect civilians and promote lasting peace in conflict zones worldwide.
