Australia’s ambitious Aukus submarine agreement, a cornerstone of its defence strategy, faces mounting scrutiny amid a new report from the US Congress that raises doubts about the delivery of promised nuclear submarines. Critics, including former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, argue that the prospects of the United States fulfilling its commitment are diminishing, as Washington appears to prioritise its own strategic interests in the Pacific.
Doubts Surrounding the Aukus Agreement
The US Congressional Research Service’s recent report indicates that the US Navy may not sell any Virginia-class submarines to Australia, as initially pledged under the Aukus framework. This development has intensified concerns among sceptics about the viability of the $368 billion deal, which is intended to bolster Australia’s naval capabilities in the face of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly regarding China.
Turnbull has expressed that the current Australian government is “engaged in an exercise of denial” regarding the challenges facing the Aukus agreement. Meanwhile, Greens senator David Shoebridge has labelled the deal a “pantomime,” suggesting it heavily favours US interests at the expense of Australia’s sovereignty and security.
A Shift in Military Strategy?
The Congressional report contemplates an alternative approach: retaining the submarines under US command while stationing them at Australian bases. This strategy, according to the report, would allow for immediate deployment in the event of a crisis with China over Taiwan, an area where the US seeks to maintain a strong military presence. The report argues that submarines commanded by Australia would be less effective in a conflict scenario, as they could not be readily mobilised without the US’s approval.
Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles has dismissed the report as mere “commentary” and reassured that Aukus is progressing at “full steam ahead.” He insists that the US administration has confirmed its commitment to the deal, including the transfer of the submarines.
Progress Despite Challenges
The Australian Submarine Agency has affirmed that Aukus remains a top strategic priority for Australia, the US, and the UK. They claim that all partners are heavily investing in their respective industrial bases to ensure the successful delivery of the Virginia-class submarines by 2032. The agency maintains that progress is being made “at pace and on schedule,” despite the misgivings expressed by critics.
However, the report highlights significant issues in US naval shipbuilding, with the US Navy struggling to meet its own demands. Currently, the US is only producing approximately 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia-class submarines annually, well below the required rate to fulfil both its own needs and those of Australia.
Implications for Australia’s Defence Policy
The challenges surrounding the Aukus deal have raised serious questions about the future of Australia’s defence procurement strategy. Turnbull argues that the agreement is inherently flawed, as it grants the US a strategic advantage while leaving Australia subject to the uncertainties of American military needs. He warns that if the US decides it cannot spare any submarines, Australia will be left without any recourse.
Shoebridge further critiques the deal, asserting that no matter the branding on the submarines, the operational control would remain with the US, thereby compromising Australia’s sovereignty. The potential for Australia to rely heavily on US capabilities could significantly alter its foreign policy and defence landscape.
Why it Matters
The future of the Aukus agreement is not merely a question of military assets; it encapsulates broader themes of sovereignty, strategic independence, and the shifting dynamics of global power. As Australia navigates its path in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, the ability to retain control over its defence resources and make autonomous decisions will be crucial. The outcome of the Aukus deal will not only shape Australia’s naval capabilities but also its standing as a key player in regional security and its relationship with allies, particularly the United States.
