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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised alarm bells across Africa, where dependence on imported fertiliser is deeply ingrained in agricultural practices. Experts warn that disruptions in supply chains, particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz, could exacerbate food insecurity and elevate the cost of living for millions on the continent.
Fertiliser Dependency and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
A significant portion of Africa’s agricultural output hinges on fertiliser that is primarily imported from the Gulf region. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights that countries such as Sudan rely heavily on this avenue, with 54% of its fertiliser coming via sea routes. For Somalia and Kenya, the figures stand at 30% and 26%, respectively. Given that approximately one-third of global fertiliser trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the implications of any disruption are profound.
The Gulf region boasts large-scale production of fertiliser, largely due to its abundant and inexpensive fossil gas, essential for nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea. Furthermore, the availability of sulphur, a byproduct used in phosphate fertiliser production, solidifies the region’s role as a key player in the fertiliser market. However, as tensions escalate in the Middle East, the flow of these essential agricultural inputs faces significant challenges.
Escalating Costs and Economic Pressures
Since the onset of the conflict last month, fertiliser prices have surged, reflecting broader trends in oil and gas prices. UNCTAD warns that these increases could lead to heightened food prices and intensified financial strain on vulnerable populations. The precarious nature of African economies, characterised by a reliance on foreign imports, volatile commodity prices, and insufficient infrastructure, makes them particularly susceptible to such shocks.
Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, emphasises that any disruption in supply chains has a cascading effect on the continent. He notes, “Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us.” This interconnectedness underscores the fragility of Africa’s economic landscape, where high debt levels and budget constraints further compound the issue.
Professor XN Iraki from the University of Nairobi elaborates that the impact of rising oil prices will be particularly acute in Africa due to the prevalence of informal employment, where income stability is not guaranteed. Rama Yade, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, echoes these concerns, asserting that governments may be compelled to either increase subsidies or pass costs onto consumers, potentially igniting social unrest.
National Responses to Economic Challenges
Governments across Africa are bracing for potential economic shocks. In Kenya, Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi assured that scheduled imports of petroleum products would continue until the end of April, emphasising the need for uninterrupted supply. Likewise, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has instructed the energy ministry to bolster the nation’s strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has taken proactive measures by introducing a special fuel subsidy designed to shield citizens from the financial repercussions of soaring global oil prices, while Zambia has issued warnings to fuel retailers against hoarding.
Despite these measures, Naidoo cautions that existing mechanisms like subsidies may not suffice for long-term relief. The continent has previously grappled with similar challenges, such as the disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which further strained agricultural supply chains.
The Broader Implications for Trade
As the conflict unfolds, African exports to the Middle East are also affected, creating a ripple effect in trade relations. Kenya’s Agriculture Minister Mutahi Kagwe recently confirmed that the war has interrupted the export of vital products, including meat and tea, to Middle Eastern markets. This dual impact on both imports and exports signifies a broader economic crisis that could reverberate across the region.
Why it Matters
The current geopolitical climate underscores the fragility of Africa’s food security and economic stability. With a heavy reliance on imported fertiliser and the volatility of global markets, the continent stands at a precipice, teetering between economic resilience and vulnerability. As nations navigate these turbulent waters, the urgency for strategic, long-term solutions to enhance agricultural self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on volatile external markets has never been clearer. The repercussions of this conflict extend far beyond immediate supply chain disruptions; they threaten the very fabric of food security for millions across Africa.
