In a surprising turn of events, the Reform Party led by Nigel Farage appears to be facing a potential ceiling in its voter support, according to leading pollster Sir John Curtice. Recent polling data suggests that while the party’s popularity has surged in recent years, reaching a peak of 32% of the vote, it may have now reached the limits of its growth.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has seen a modest increase in support, with around 19% of voters indicating they would back the party in the next election. This comes despite a string of high-profile defections to the Reform Party, underscoring the ongoing battle for right-wing voters.
Curtice has suggested that 32% may be the “height of what Reform can achieve,” describing its support as a “very, very niche market.” He has also forecast that both parties will eventually have to consider a potential electoral pact, as they compete to be the main party of the right.
However, Farage has firmly rejected the notion of any such deal, stating that there would be “no deal with dishonest people that don’t deserve our trust.” The Conservative Party has also ruled out any potential alliance with the Reform Party, with a spokesman for the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, stating that “there will never be a pact under her leadership.”
The growing calls for unity on the right have been met with a mixed response. Former Conservative MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has argued that a combined Reform and Tory vote could exceed 40%, potentially leading to a “thumping majority” against a “splintered Left.” However, he has also acknowledged that personal ambition is “the biggest obstacle to a united Right in Britain today.”
As the battle for right-wing voters intensifies, the question remains whether the Reform Party and the Conservatives will continue to cannibalize each other’s support, potentially paving the way for a Labour victory, or if they will eventually find common ground in the interest of the nation.
