As protests continue to rock Iran, the government’s heavy-handed response has drawn global attention. The authoritarian regime in Tehran is facing a critical juncture, with signs that it may be decaying gradually, though not yet at the point of sudden collapse.
The past two weeks of unrest have posed a significant challenge for the Islamic regime. Anger and frustration among Iranians have spilled onto the streets, fuelled in part by the impact of sanctions that have crippled the economy. Food price inflation soared to over 70% in 2025, while the national currency, the rial, reached record lows in December.
However, the evidence suggests the regime is not on the verge of immediate demise. The security forces, particularly the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its auxiliary Basij militia, have remained loyal to the government, ruthlessly cracking down on protesters. Eyewitnesses have described a deadly response, with security forces opening fire on demonstrators.
The IRGC, a parallel force to Iran’s conventional military, has been a key pillar of the regime since the 1979 Islamic revolution. With its vast resources, economic influence, and ideological commitment, the IRGC has a vested interest in defending the system.
While US President Donald Trump has threatened to take action, the regime appears to be seeking ways to relieve the pressure it faces. Bellicose rhetoric has been mixed with offers to resume nuclear negotiations with the US, a move that could buy Tehran some time, especially if Trump can be convinced that a deal, however unlikely, is possible.
The fate of the Iranian regime remains uncertain. As Hemingway famously observed, authoritarian systems can decay gradually before collapsing suddenly. The protesters and their supporters abroad are hoping for the latter, but the evidence suggests the process is still in the gradual stage.
The regime’s opponents will be hoping for increased pressure, both at home and abroad, as well as the emergence of credible leadership, to accelerate the decay. The downfall of other authoritarian regimes, such as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, serve as cautionary tales for the clerics and military leaders in Tehran.
Ultimately, the future of the Islamic Republic in Iran will depend on the delicate balance between the government’s ability to maintain control and the resilience of the protesters demanding change. The world watches closely as this high-stakes drama continues to unfold.
