As Scotland prepares for the 2026 Holyrood election, the political landscape is poised for a pivotal shift. With the Scottish National Party (SNP) having held power for nearly two decades, their rivals believe a change of government is long overdue.
First Minister John Swinney is seeking to secure a fifth term for the SNP, touting progress in areas like NHS wait times and child poverty reduction. However, his opponents argue that pressing issues such as the housing shortage, high drug deaths, and persistent problems in the NHS warrant a new direction.
The political landscape has been further complicated by the apparent rise in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which is seen as a threat to both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives. The Tories, led by Russell Findlay, are hoping to offer a distinctive platform of tax cuts, deregulation, and reduced “wasteful” spending to win over voters.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is promising a “new direction” for Scotland, focused on solving entrenched problems in public services. The party’s ratings have fallen as the UK government’s unpopularity has grown, but Sarwar remains hopeful that he can close the gap and challenge Swinney for power.
The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Liberal Democrats also see potential for growth in the highly competitive race, as the SNP continues to weave the independence issue into its campaign.
Before the election, the Scottish government’s draft budget on January 13th will be a key event, with negotiations with opposition parties ongoing to secure approval for the minority government’s spending plans. Expect an uplift in funding for the college sector and further measures to address the cost-of-living pressures.
The Holyrood election on May 7th will coincide with elections to the Welsh Parliament and some local authorities in England, making it a significant test of voter sentiment across the UK since Labour’s general election win. The results could be seen as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, with potential challenges to his position if Labour’s fortunes do not improve.
As the campaign season unfolds, Scotland’s political landscape is set to undergo a significant transformation, with nearly a third of Holyrood’s 129 members choosing to stand down. Voters will have the opportunity to decide the extent of that change, shaping the future direction of the country.
