In the heart of southwest Scotland, dairy farmers Adam and Lucy Johnstone are grappling with a crisis that is threatening the very future of their farm. Over the past three months, the price they receive for each litre of milk from dairy giant Arla has plummeted by a staggering 25%, falling below the cost of production.
The Johnstones are not alone in their struggle. Across Scotland, dairy farmers are being hit by a perfect storm of factors that has left the industry in a state of turmoil. The National Farmers Union of Scotland (NFUS) has described the current situation as “unprecedented” in both its speed and scale.
Arla, the dairy cooperative that buys the Johnstones’ milk, attributes the price slump to a global oversupply of milk, coupled with flat demand for milk and dairy products like cheese and yoghurt. The Johnstones say it costs them 38.5p to produce a litre of milk, but they are currently receiving just 35.7p per litre from Arla. This means that if they produced 35,000 litres a month, they would be paid £12,495 – around £1,000 less than it costs them to care for their herd.
“As an industry, we become accustomed to making a loss, and that’s meant to be okay because at other times of the year we make a little bit more money,” says Lucy Johnstone. “I find it tough that we’re meant to be okay with not covering what it costs us to produce food that we’re feeding the nation with.”
The Johnstones are now exploring the option of selling their milk directly to local customers in the nearby town of Moffat, in addition to their current contract with Arla. They say the support shown by local residents, hoteliers, and businesses has reminded them that there is an appreciation for the country’s farmers, but the ongoing stress has left them contemplating leaving the industry altogether.
Adam Johnstone, a former marine and amputee, is now working through the pain of his condition to keep the farm afloat. “It’s soul-destroying to be honest,” he says. “There are a lot of benefits that come from farming that aren’t financial – we have a great way of life and get to spend a lot of time with the kids. But the financial pressures are there day-in, day-out and don’t go away when you go to sleep. We’ve had multiple conversations about getting out of farming.”
The crisis in the dairy industry is not limited to the Johnstones’ farm. According to NFUS, UK milk production is expected to exceed 13 billion litres this year, while prices for mild cheddar, butter, and skimmed milk powder are all approaching their lowest levels in five years. Large dairy processors like Arla, Müller, and First Milk have been cutting the prices paid to farmers for their milk, citing the global market conditions.
The NFUS is now calling for trust, transparency, and fairness throughout the supply chain, urging processors to communicate clearly and fairly with their suppliers. “This is about more than milk – it’s about rural jobs, local food security, and the future of our communities,” says NFUS vice-president Robert Neill. “The supply chain must share the risk, not just the reward.”
For the Johnstones and many other dairy farmers in Scotland, the future remains uncertain. They are in “survival mode,” fighting to keep their farm and their way of life alive in the face of an unprecedented crisis that is testing the resilience of the entire industry.
