Recent statistics reveal a notable decrease in the number of Canadians journeying to the United States, a trend that has raised concerns among businesses reliant on cross-border tourism. Data from Statistics Canada indicates that return trips by Canadian residents fell by 14.5 per cent in February 2026 compared to the same month in 2025. This decline is even more pronounced, showing a staggering 31.5 per cent drop since February 2024.
Statistics Paint a Clear Picture
The figures indicate a significant downturn in cross-border travel, particularly affecting land and air routes. Return trips via land border crossings decreased by 12.9 per cent year-on-year, while air travel saw a reduction of 17.6 per cent. This trend is particularly detrimental to cities in North Dakota that are frequented by Canadian visitors, especially those from Manitoba who often embark on road trips southward.
Dannielle Melquist, marketing director for Visit Fargo-Moorhead, highlighted that their region has experienced a roughly 20 per cent decline in Canadian visitors compared to the previous year. The tourism development organisation reported approximately 5.7 million visitor days in 2025, with Canadians contributing around one million of those days. “Definitely our hotel partners are seeing an impact,” Melquist noted, adding that local sporting events and retail businesses are also feeling the pinch.
Local Businesses Feeling the Strain
The decline in visitors is starkly evident at the Emerson Duty-Free Shop, owned by Simon Resch, where traffic and sales have plummeted between 50 and 75 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels. Resch expressed concern over the future, stating, “We don’t expect it to come back in the near future.” He recalled a brief resurgence of traffic in August 2024, which was abruptly curtailed by the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on Canadian goods in early 2025.
Despite the downturn in travel to the United States, the overall travel landscape for Canadians is not entirely bleak. Statistics Canada reported a 7.2 per cent increase in overseas arrivals during February 2026. Notably, more Canadian residents chose to return home from international destinations by air than those who crossed the land borders into the U.S. during the same month.
Airlines Respond to Changing Demand
The Winnipeg Airports Authority (WAA) noted a continuing downward trend in U.S. travel, attributing an 8 per cent decline in 2025 to ongoing tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Interestingly, travel from the U.S. to Canada has remained stable, suggesting a one-sided effect on cross-border tourism.
In light of these shifting dynamics, WestJet recently announced the suspension of 16 routes between Canada and the U.S., including direct flights from Winnipeg to Atlanta and Nashville. Instead, the airline is pivoting to offer direct flights to destinations like Keflavik, Iceland, and Liberia, Costa Rica, in 2025, indicating a strategic shift in response to current market demands.
Why it Matters
The reduction in Canadian travel to the United States is more than just a statistic; it reflects a broader economic reality influenced by tariffs, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical uncertainties. This decline not only impacts the businesses that cater to Canadian tourists but also signals potential long-term changes in travel behaviour. As Canadians increasingly opt for overseas destinations over their southern neighbour, local economies that depend on cross-border tourism may need to adapt or face continued challenges. The ripple effects of this trend could reshape the landscape of North American trade and tourism for years to come.
