**
The New START treaty, the last significant nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, officially expired on 5 February 2026, marking a pivotal moment in global nuclear policy. For the first time in over half a century, the two nations with the largest nuclear stockpiles now find themselves without any constraints, raising alarm bells over the potential for a renewed arms race.
The Context of New START
Established in 2010 under the leadership of President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START was designed to limit both nations to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 strategic delivery systems, including missiles and bombers. The treaty not only aimed to reduce nuclear arsenals but also included provisions for on-site inspections to ensure compliance. However, these inspections were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.
In recent discussions, Russian President Vladimir Putin had expressed a willingness to extend the treaty’s limitations for an additional year, contingent on a reciprocal agreement from Washington. However, former President Donald Trump’s indecision left the future of the treaty uncertain.
Russia’s Response to the Expiry
Following the treaty’s lapse, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov revealed that Putin had conferred with Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the treaty’s expiration. Ushakov noted that the lack of a response from the United States regarding the proposed extension left Russia with little choice but to reassess its position. “Russia will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation,” Ushakov stated.
The Russian Foreign Ministry subsequently declared that, in light of the current circumstances, both parties to the New START treaty were no longer obligated to adhere to its provisions, thereby freeing them to determine their future actions. This development has prompted fears of a potential escalation in nuclear armament, as both nations reconsider their strategic postures without the treaty’s moderating influence.
A Shift in Nuclear Arms Control Landscape
The expiration of New START is particularly concerning given the historical context of arms reduction agreements between the US and Russia. This treaty followed a series of similar pacts aimed at reducing the threat of nuclear conflict, all of which have now been either abandoned or allowed to lapse. The implications of this shift are profound, as it signals a retreat from decades of progress towards limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, in early February 2023, Putin announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in the treaty, citing the inability to permit US inspections of its nuclear facilities amid a backdrop of escalating tensions over the situation in Ukraine. Although Russia maintained it was not withdrawing completely from the treaty, the suspension indicated a significant deterioration in trust and cooperation.
Concerns Over Nuclear Proliferation
As the world witnesses this pivotal moment in nuclear arms control, experts warn of the dangers that could arise from the absence of constraints. The potential for an unconstrained arms race between the US and Russia raises critical concerns not only for these nations but for global security as a whole. The end of New START could embolden both countries to enhance their nuclear capabilities, leading to an uncertain and precarious future.
The absence of a binding framework for nuclear arms control could also have ramifications beyond the US and Russia. Other nations may feel incentivised to expand their own arsenals in a bid to maintain strategic parity, further complicating an already fraught geopolitical landscape.
Why it Matters
The expiration of the New START treaty underscores a significant regression in international efforts to manage and limit nuclear arsenals. In a world still grappling with the spectre of nuclear conflict, the absence of a regulatory framework raises the stakes for global security. As tensions mount and the possibility of renewed arms competition looms, the need for robust diplomacy and renewed commitment to arms control has never been more urgent. The future of nuclear non-proliferation hangs in the balance, and the international community must respond with vigilance and resolve.