In a troubling turn of events, the conflict in the Middle East has entered a perilous new phase as both sides have begun targeting essential infrastructure, specifically desalination plants, critical for providing drinking water to millions. These recent strikes signal a disturbing evolution in warfare, where access to water becomes a weapon in a region already grappling with severe water scarcity.
Water: A Weapon of War
Over the weekend, tensions escalated dramatically between Bahrain and Iran, with both nations accusing each other of attacking desalination facilities. Bahrain claimed that a drone strike, attributed to Iran, targeted one of its desalination plants. This incident followed Iran’s assertion that a US military operation had damaged a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, disrupting water supplies to around 30 villages. Analysts warn that this marks a significant shift in military strategy, as water infrastructure becomes a deliberate target rather than collateral damage.
David Michel, a senior fellow specialising in water security, described this development as a “significant increase in risk,” indicating a willingness from both sides to jeopardise civilian infrastructure. “As the conflict continues, decision-makers may feel pressured to escalate further,” he stated, underscoring the gravity of the situation.
The Fragility of Water Resources
The Middle East is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing cities, yet it possesses only 2% of the planet’s renewable freshwater resources. Gulf states have invested heavily in desalination technology to convert seawater into drinking water. For instance, Kuwait and the UAE rely on desalination for approximately 90% of their drinking supply, while Oman and Saudi Arabia depend on it for 86% and 70%, respectively.
Despite the importance of these facilities, experts assert that they are alarmingly vulnerable. Lalit Mohan, a water management consultant, highlighted that damage to any component of a desalination plant can disrupt the entire water supply. Many plants are interconnected with power stations, meaning that attacks on electrical infrastructure could halt operations even without direct hits.
Ed Cullinane, Middle East Editor at Global Water Intelligence, emphasised that these facilities lack adequate protection. “Desalination plants are as exposed as any civilian infrastructure,” he noted, drawing parallels with oil terminals and other critical sites that have been targeted in recent conflicts.
Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities
The threat to desalination plants extends beyond physical attacks; cyber warfare also poses a significant risk. Iran has previously demonstrated its capability to breach water systems, including a notorious cyber intrusion on a New York dam in 2013. Michel warned that Gulf states might find their water infrastructure susceptible to similar cyber assaults, which could be executed with plausible deniability.
Despite knowing these vulnerabilities for years, Gulf nations have struggled to enhance the security of their water supplies. While some emergency storage solutions exist, a major attack on a desalination facility could sever piped water delivery entirely. Historical warnings from US intelligence have indicated that damage to key plants could lead to catastrophic humanitarian crises, including mass evacuations.
The Strategic Implications
The ongoing conflict highlights a broader strategic calculus. Targeting civilian water infrastructure allows for precise military escalation without the broader repercussions that would accompany blockades of critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Michel argued that by compromising access to water, adversaries can create civilian pressure that could potentially lead to calls for peace. If populations are deprived of water, the ensuing desperation may prompt them to demand an end to hostilities.
Moreover, the humanitarian implications are profound. The World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas indicates that a staggering 83% of the Middle East’s population already experiences severe water scarcity. As the situation deteriorates, the risk of a humanitarian crisis looms large, not only for those directly involved in the conflict but also for the broader region.
Why it Matters
The targeting of desalination plants in the Middle East underscores the urgent need for international scrutiny regarding the legality of such actions under humanitarian law. These facilities are essential for civilian life and should be protected from military aggression. As the conflict continues to escalate, the potential for catastrophic humanitarian crises grows, highlighting the pressing need for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and safeguard essential resources. The implications for millions of civilians could be dire, making it imperative that the international community acts swiftly to address these threats and support stable, sustainable water management in the region.
