Cuba faces an impending humanitarian disaster as new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump threaten to exacerbate the island’s already dire fuel shortages and frequent power outages. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has raised alarms that these tariffs could have catastrophic consequences for the Cuban populace, who are struggling with daily 12-hour blackouts and limited access to essential services.
Tariffs and Humanitarian Concerns
President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that initiates tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba, citing the Cuban government’s alleged connections to Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy to destabilise the communist regime in Havana. In a statement, the White House indicated that these tariffs would intensify pressure on the Cuban government, which has become increasingly reliant on foreign oil supplies.
Sheinbaum, whose country has been Cuba’s leading oil supplier since 2025—outpacing Venezuela and Russia—emphasised the need for Mexico to explore options to provide humanitarian assistance to the island while ensuring the safety of its own interests. “We will seek a way, without putting Mexico at risk, of course, but always seeking solidarity with the Cuban people,” she stated.
Crippling Blackouts and Economic Strain
The impact of these tariffs could be profoundly disruptive. With Cuba’s oil reserves reportedly sufficient for only 15 to 20 days under current consumption levels, a looming fuel crisis is on the horizon. Hospitals, food supplies, and essential services are at risk, as Sheinbaum highlighted that the tariffs could adversely affect basic living conditions for Cuban citizens.
Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez responded vehemently to the US actions, accusing Trump of attempting to “suffocate” the island’s economy. He condemned the tariffs as reflective of a “fascist, criminal, and genocidal nature” that prioritises personal gain over the welfare of the Cuban people.
US Military Posturing and International Implications
The situation has intensified following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, a pivotal ally of the Cuban government, earlier this year. In light of these developments, Trump took to social media, declaring, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” His administration has also hinted at potential military interventions, with US officials discussing the possibility of deploying naval vessels off the coast of Cuba.
Mike Hammer, the US chargé d’affaires in Havana, suggested that this could lead to an actual blockade, countering claims from Cuba about a longstanding “blockade” imposed by the US. This rhetoric complicates diplomatic relations, particularly as Mexico navigates its position as a trade partner while trying to maintain solidarity with the Cuban populace.
The Fragile State of Cuba’s Energy Crisis
As daily life in Cuba grows increasingly difficult, many families are struggling to prepare meals, often resorting to makeshift cooking methods due to shortages of gas canisters. Jorge Piñon, an energy expert at the University of Texas, warned that if oil and fuel deliveries do not resume within the next six to eight weeks, the situation could escalate into a full-blown crisis for the Cuban government.
The geopolitical implications of this crisis extend beyond Cuba and Mexico, potentially affecting trade relationships across the region. As the US and Mexico renegotiate the USMCA, tensions surrounding oil supplies and security measures could play a pivotal role in shaping future diplomatic engagements.
Why it Matters
The unfolding situation is a stark reminder of the fragile balance between international relations and humanitarian needs. As the US intensifies its measures against Cuba, the potential for widespread suffering among its citizens grows. The critical question remains: can diplomatic channels navigate these turbulent waters to prevent a humanitarian disaster, or will the escalating tensions lead to irrevocable damage to the lives of millions?
