Exxon Mobil has reported a stronger-than-anticipated fourth-quarter performance, driven by efficient oil production in the Permian Basin and Guyana. The largest oil producer in the United States announced adjusted earnings of US$1.71 per share for the last quarter of 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of US$1.68 per share as calculated by LSEG analysts. Despite a difficult year for oil prices, the company managed to mitigate profit declines through strategic cost-cutting measures.
Performance Highlights
In a year marked by a significant oversupply of crude oil, which caused Brent oil futures to plummet by 19 per cent, Exxon’s full-year adjusted profit fell by a more moderate 10 per cent. This decline reflects the firm’s focus on enhancing productivity and reducing expenditure. CEO Darren Woods remarked, “We’re capturing more value from every barrel and molecule we produce and building growth platforms at scale – creating a long runway of profitable growth through 2030 and beyond.”
Exxon also reported record upstream production figures, reaching its highest level in over 40 years. This achievement highlights the company’s commitment to maximising output while navigating a turbulent market landscape.
Future Prospects and Venezuelan Opportunities
During an earnings call scheduled for later today, Woods is expected to address inquiries regarding Exxon’s potential re-engagement in Venezuela. The recent political developments, including the removal of President Nicolas Maduro, have led to increased interest from U.S. companies in revitalising the country’s oil sector. President Trump has advocated for significant American investment in Venezuela to rejuvenate its oil industry.
Despite past expropriations and Woods’ previous characterisation of Venezuela as “uninvestable,” there appears to be an openness to reassessing opportunities within the country. According to sources familiar with Exxon’s strategy, the company is considering sending a technical team to explore potential investments.
Financial Strategies and Capital Expenditures
In 2025, Exxon returned a substantial US$17.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchased US$20 billion of its shares. The company has pledged to maintain this level of share buybacks through 2026. Earlier this month, Exxon indicated that improved refining margins could contribute an additional US$300 million to US$700 million to its fourth-quarter earnings, though it also flagged potential asset writedowns amounting to approximately US$1.7 billion.
The company’s capital expenditures reached US$29 billion last year, with plans for 2026 set between US$27 billion and US$29 billion. This strategic investment is aimed at ensuring long-term growth and sustainability.
Why it Matters
Exxon Mobil’s ability to outperform earnings expectations despite a challenging market underscores its resilience and strategic acumen in the oil industry. As global energy dynamics continue to evolve, especially with the prospect of re-entering the Venezuelan market, Exxon’s decisions will not only impact its future growth but also the broader landscape of the global oil sector. Investors and analysts alike will be keenly observing how the company navigates these complexities while striving for profitability in an uncertain economic environment.
