China is grappling with a concerning demographic shift as its birth rate has plummeted to a record low, despite the government’s efforts to boost fertility. Government data reveals that the country’s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest level since the Communist Party took power in 1949. Meanwhile, the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.
The population decline has been more rapid than the previous year, with a decrease of 3.39 million to reach 1.4 billion by the end of 2025. Faced with an ageing population and a sluggish economy, Beijing has implemented various incentives to encourage young people to marry and have children.
In 2016, the government scrapped its long-standing one-child policy and replaced it with a two-child limit. When this did not lead to a sustained increase in births, authorities announced in 2021 that they would allow up to three children per couple. More recently, China has offered parents 3,600 yuan (£375; $500) per child under the age of three, and some provinces are providing additional bonuses and extended maternity leave.
However, these incentives have sparked controversy, with a new 13% tax on contraceptives, including condoms, birth control pills, and devices, raising concerns about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates.
China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at around one birth per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Other economies in the region, such as South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, also have similarly low fertility rates.
According to a 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing, China is also one of the most expensive countries in which to raise a child. Some Chinese people have expressed reluctance to have children, citing the desire for a carefree life without constantly worrying about their children.
Experts at the United Nations believe China’s population will continue on a downward trajectory, estimating that the nation will lose more than half of its current population by 2100. A shrinking population has significant economic and social implications for the world’s second-largest economy, including an already declining workforce, weak consumer sentiment, and a growing number of seniors who may need to rely on government support.
The pension pot is running dry, according to the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the country is running out of time to build enough funds to care for its growing elderly population. China will have 300 million pensioners, and the question remains whether the country can afford to support them.
