As the winter flu season kicks into high gear, there have been conflicting reports about the severity of this year’s outbreak. While some have described it as a “superflu” and “unprecedented”, health experts have cautioned against such alarmist language, arguing that this flu season, while unusual in some respects, is not necessarily worse than previous years.
The early start to the flu season and the emergence of a mutated strain of the H3N2 virus, dubbed “subclade-K”, did raise concerns that this year’s flu could be particularly severe. However, according to Professor Christophe Fraser of the University of Oxford’s Pandemic Sciences Institute, the virus has not gained a “dramatic ability to rip through the population” and is spreading at a “very similar speed to previous years”.
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency, acknowledged that there were some unusual factors this season, such as the early start and the virus evolution, but stated that “in terms of the impact on the NHS and the impact on people’s health, we’re seeing a broadly typical flu season”.
The use of language like “superflu” by some organisations, including NHS England, has been criticised by experts. Professor Nicola Lewis, the director of the World Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute, said the virus was “not particularly unusual” and that she saw “no evidence” it was “particularly different”. Similarly, the former deputy chief medical officer for England, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, questioned the term “superflu”, stating he was “very unclear” what it meant.
Experts have warned that the escalation of language used since the COVID-19 pandemic could harm public trust in official health advice. Dr. Simon Williams, a researcher at Swansea University, said there are issues with the “current language around every winter being ‘the worst’ in some way or another” and risks a “cry wolf” effect that damages trust and means people become “numb” to the advice.
Professor Jonathan Ball, a virologist at Nottingham University, agreed, saying: “I think it is a concern to use words like ‘super flu’, when we may one day experience a real super flu. We have to be very, very careful about how we communicate these things to the public, because there is a risk that we can cry wolf.”
While the flu season has undoubtedly been challenging, with the NHS under pressure, experts urge caution against overly alarmist rhetoric. Instead, they call for a “fine balance” between raising awareness and avoiding fear-mongering, in order to maintain public trust and ensure effective health messaging.
