In a pivotal by-election for the Gorton and Denton constituency, the stakes have never been higher for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. As polls closed at 10pm GMT on February 26, 2026, the outcome of this contest is set to influence not only the future of Labour in Greater Manchester but also the political landscape in the UK. Following a previous triumph in 2024, Labour faces a daunting challenge against the Greens and Reform UK, with early indications suggesting a tightly contested race.
A Complicated Political Landscape
The political scenario in Gorton and Denton has become increasingly complex. Labour’s hold on the seat, which it won decisively with over 50% of the vote in the last general election, is now being fiercely contested. Polling data leading up to the by-election indicated that Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, was in a close race with Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin and the Greens’ Hannah Spencer. A defeat, especially a third-place finish, could reignite scrutiny over Starmer’s leadership, with some insiders warning that it could jeopardise his position as party leader.
Despite this pressure, many Labour MPs have indicated that an immediate leadership challenge is unlikely, even in the event of a disappointing result. Their rationale is clear: the party is gearing up for local and devolved elections scheduled for May 7, and they wish to avoid internal strife at such a critical time.
Candidates and Campaign Strategies
The candidates vying for the Gorton and Denton seat have been actively campaigning in the area, with party leaders making notable appearances. Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, was the first to arrive at the count, showcasing his willingness to engage with the electorate. This effort is indicative of a broader strategy among the Greens and Reform UK to position themselves as credible alternatives to Labour.
Labour has mobilised significant resources for this by-election, with over 1,000 activists reportedly deployed to canvas the constituency. Starmer himself visited the area shortly before the election, demonstrating his commitment to retaining this vital seat. The party’s strategy has focused on addressing local issues and highlighting their achievements under Starmer’s leadership.
The Context of the By-Election
This by-election was necessitated by the resignation of former MP Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down due to health issues. Gwynne’s departure from Labour—following his suspension over controversial messages—has left the party facing an uphill battle to maintain public trust in the constituency.
Historically, Gorton and Denton has been a Labour stronghold, but recent polling trends suggest a shift in voter sentiment. The 2024 general election saw a decrease in Labour’s share of the vote compared to previous years, with Reform UK and the Greens making significant inroads. If this trend continues, it may signal a broader change in the political dynamics of the region.
What’s Next for Labour?
As results begin to emerge, all eyes will be on Labour’s performance in the by-election. The implications of this contest extend beyond the immediate political landscape. Should Labour fail to secure a victory or even come third, it will likely prompt renewed calls for a reassessment of leadership strategies within the party.
Conversely, a successful defence of the seat could provide Sir Keir Starmer with much-needed momentum as he navigates the challenges ahead. The results will not only shape Labour’s future in Gorton and Denton but may also set the tone for upcoming local elections across the country.
Why it Matters
The Gorton and Denton by-election serves as a crucial barometer for the current political climate in the UK. The outcome will significantly impact Labour’s strategic direction and could either bolster or undermine Starmer’s leadership. In an era marked by evolving voter preferences, the results will reflect broader trends in public sentiment and could foreshadow challenges to come for Labour as they strive to reconnect with their traditional base while addressing the aspirations of a changing electorate.
