The impending by-election in Gorton and Denton is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Labour leader Keir Starmer, as concerns mount over the implications of the Peter Mandelson scandal. Lucy Powell, Starmer’s deputy, has characterised the vote on 26 February as a “dry run” for the next general election, with some within the party warning that it may serve as a referendum on Starmer himself.
Mandelson Scandal Casts Shadow
The controversy surrounding Mandelson, who was recently appointed as the US ambassador, has raised questions about Starmer’s leadership. Reports allege that Mandelson had previously shared sensitive government information with Jeffrey Epstein, a revelation that has intensified scrutiny on Starmer’s judgment. Powell acknowledged that the scandal is likely to be a key issue during the campaign, suggesting that the electorate may hold Starmer accountable for his controversial appointment.
“It’s a line in the sand for us,” Powell remarked, indicating the importance of the by-election in curtailing the momentum of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party. While Labour won the seat with over 50% of the vote in 2024, the current political climate has shifted, with Reform polling strongly in recent surveys.
Labour’s Campaign Strategy
Labour is mobilising its resources in Gorton and Denton, dispatching senior ministers to bolster the campaign. Powell highlighted the involvement of prominent figures, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, as essential to maintaining Labour’s foothold in the constituency. However, the party’s strategy has faced internal criticism, particularly regarding Starmer’s decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from contesting the candidacy. Many believe Burnham could have strengthened Labour’s chances against Reform.
While Powell expressed her support for Burnham, she indicated that the party must move forward. “We want to draw a line under that episode,” she stated, affirming his value to the campaign despite the tensions.
Farage’s Influence Looms Large
Nigel Farage has been actively campaigning for Reform UK in Gorton and Denton, asserting that the by-election may serve as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. “I really do believe this is turning into a referendum on Keir Starmer,” Farage claimed, suggesting that the political landscape is ripe for a challenge to Labour’s dominance.
The sentiment within Labour is mixed, with some MPs expressing alarm at the potential fallout if the party fails to secure a strong result. “If we do [come third], the PM is in trouble,” warned one minister. With recent polls indicating a tight race, Labour is aware that failing to retain the seat could significantly undermine Starmer’s position.
The Stakes for Labour and the Prime Minister
Recent polling data presents a complicated picture, with some surveys showing Reform leading by a slim margin. This precarious situation has led to heightened urgency within Labour, as MPs acknowledge the stakes involved in the Gorton and Denton by-election. As the party prepares to face the electorate, the pressure is mounting on Starmer to demonstrate decisive leadership in the face of adversity.
“I’ve had enough of their division, their othering,” Powell remarked, emphasising the importance of countering Reform’s narrative. She characterised the upcoming vote as not just a local election but a crucial battleground in Labour’s fight against the far-right party.
Why it Matters
The Gorton and Denton by-election is more than a local contest; it has become a litmus test for Starmer’s leadership and Labour’s future trajectory. With the Mandelson scandal casting a long shadow, the outcome will significantly influence the party’s ability to regain public trust and stave off rising populism from Reform UK. As political tensions escalate, the results on 26 February could redefine the landscape of British politics, making this vote one to watch closely.
