The upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton, Greater Manchester, is poised to be a highly competitive affair, with Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, and Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin emerging as the leading candidates. This event is more than just a local election; it reflects the broader tensions and shifting dynamics within British politics.
A Political Landscape in Flux
Months of speculation have surrounded the potential return of Greater Manchester’s Mayor, Andy Burnham, to Westminster. Since the summer of last year, discussions about how Burnham would re-enter the political fray have been prevalent. The Gorton and Denton seat was seen as a prime opportunity for him. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s intervention, leveraging Labour Party protocols, effectively curtailed Burnham’s ambitions to contest this seat.
This by-election marks the second opportunity for parties to contest a parliamentary seat since the last general election. The first, held in Runcorn and Helsby last May, saw Reform UK narrowly dethrone Labour, marking the tenth consecutive by-election where the winning party was different from the previous holder. These results underscore the current volatility in the political sphere, as traditional voting patterns appear increasingly unpredictable.
The Stakes for Labour and Reform
While by-elections do not significantly alter the overall composition of the House of Commons, they can influence the prevailing political sentiment. In Gorton and Denton, many analysts predict a tight race among Labour, Reform, and the Green Party. A narrow victory for Labour would be a significant morale boost for Sir Keir Starmer, particularly following a challenging start to 2026. Securing the seat without Burnham as their candidate would bolster the party’s narrative of resilience and adaptability.
Conversely, a win for Reform UK would serve to highlight their growing political influence, although a loss would raise questions about their momentum, especially after a disappointing performance in last autumn’s by-election in Caerphilly. Should the anti-Reform votes be distributed more evenly among Labour and the Green Party, it could open the door for Reform to secure a surprising victory.
A Historic Opportunity for the Green Party
The Green Party is also in a strong position, with a potential win representing a historic first for them in a parliamentary by-election. Even if they do not emerge victorious, their competitive showing could signal a shift in voter sentiment and reinforce their relevance in the current political landscape.
For Labour, failing to win the seat could be particularly problematic. If Reform or the Greens take the prize, it would illustrate the party’s struggle to maintain its base amid rising challenges from both the right and the left. This scenario could further complicate Labour’s strategy as they navigate their positioning in a rapidly evolving political environment.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Gorton and Denton by-election will resonate far beyond its geographical confines. As a litmus test for the current political climate, it reflects the ongoing struggle for dominance among the major parties while revealing the vulnerabilities and emerging threats they face. With the potential for any of the three leading candidates to claim victory, this by-election could serve as a pivotal moment in British politics, reshaping party narratives and influencing strategies ahead of future elections.
