The future of the transatlantic alliance hangs in the balance as Europe stiffens its resolve against President Trump’s provocative demands over Greenland. The small Arctic territory, home to fewer than 57,000 people, has unexpectedly become the epicentre of a brewing conflict that could have far-reaching implications for NATO and the broader US-Europe relationship.
Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight fellow NATO countries for supporting Greenland’s sovereignty has been met with widespread condemnation from European leaders. Danish politicians have made it clear that they will not cede control of the island, with the chair of the Danish parliament’s defence committee, Rasmus Jarlov, stating unequivocally: “We will never hand over Greenland.”
The eight countries targeted by Trump’s tariffs have issued a joint statement warning that his actions risk a “dangerous downward spiral” and that a trade war would be inevitable. French President Emmanuel Macron is exploring the activation of the EU’s anti-coercion instrument, while the future of the UK’s trade agreement with the US, announced with much fanfare last year, now hangs in the balance.
Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK’s Labour Party, has so far refrained from committing to retaliate, but the benefits of Brexit are rapidly evaporating. The case for the UK aligning more closely with Europe, rather than the “open sea” represented by the US, has been dealt yet another blow.
Experts warn that the risk of a military confrontation between Europe and the US is not negligible. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, has stated that if the US decides to attack another NATO country, it would mean the end of the alliance. The former UK permanent secretary, Simon McDonald, agrees, noting that “there’s no way back” once an ally turns against another militarily.
The US’s pursuit of Greenland is based on the need to monitor and counter Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic, but the loss of cooperation from Scandinavia, Iceland, and the UK would ultimately not serve US national interests. However, Trump’s fixation on acquiring Greenland, seemingly at any cost, has left little room for compromise, raising the spectre of a potentially devastating rift within the Western alliance.
