As the byelection for Gorton and Denton approaches, Labour’s candidate Angeliki Stogia is grappling with a formidable challenge to retain the party’s 13,000-vote majority. With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK launching its campaign headquarters nearby, the political landscape has shifted dramatically, presenting a three-way contest that could redefine local dynamics.
A Personal Fight for Labour
Stogia, who moved to the UK from Greece in 1995, expressed her deep frustration over the rise of Reform UK in a recent cafe visit. “I am angry,” she stated, voicing her concerns about Farage’s party stirring division within the community. For Stogia, the stakes are personal; she views the upcoming election as a matter of community integrity rather than mere politics.
Labour has long held sway in this diverse area of south-east Manchester, but recent controversies, including the resignation of former MP Andrew Gwynne amid the “Trigger Me Timbers” WhatsApp scandal, have left the party vulnerable. With Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government already under scrutiny due to links involving Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein, a loss on 26 February could amplify calls for his resignation.
Green Party Gains Momentum
Just weeks before the election, the Green Party has emerged as a serious contender, with bookmakers placing them as the favourites to win. Stogia has accused the Greens of disseminating misleading information, claiming their campaign materials suggest they are the only viable alternative to Reform UK. “Every Green vote is going to make Reform very happy,” she warned, drawing parallels to last year’s Runcorn and Helsby byelection where Labour lost by a mere six votes due to a split on the left.
The Greens, led by candidate Hannah Spencer, are capitalising on a wave of enthusiasm despite lacking local representation. Spencer, a plumber by trade, has quickly risen to prominence within the party. Her campaign focuses on pressing issues such as the cost of living and housing, resonating with voters who are increasingly dissatisfied with traditional party politics.
Reform UK: A New Player in Local Politics
Reform UK’s candidate Matt Goodwin, an academic and media pundit, is positioning himself as a viable alternative to both Labour and the Greens. Goodwin’s campaign is bolstered by Farage’s high-profile support, yet he faces scepticism from locals who see him as an outsider. Spencer has branded him “Reform’s worst nightmare,” arguing that she is grounded in the community while he is merely seeking personal advancement.
Campaign dynamics have shifted further as George Galloway’s Workers Party and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party have urged their supporters to back the Greens, potentially consolidating the anti-Labour vote. With nearly 28% of the constituency identifying as Muslim, sentiments are complex, as local voters weigh their options amidst rising frustration with Labour’s past governance.
Voter Sentiments: A Mixed Bag
Voter opinions are varied and often conflicting. Local resident Ghulam Ghaus, a Labour member, plans to vote for the party out of loyalty rather than enthusiasm, acknowledging the Greens’ good policies but lamenting their lack of presence. Others, like retired cleaner Catherine O’Connor, are contemplating a shift to the Greens, citing dissatisfaction with Starmer’s leadership. Meanwhile, some voters still see Reform UK as the most viable option to challenge Labour’s long-standing dominance.
The upcoming byelection has created an unpredictable environment, with analysts suggesting it may be a “pollster’s nightmare,” as three parties present credible paths to victory. Each camp can present a compelling narrative about their chances, adding to the complexity of voter decision-making.
Why it Matters
The Gorton and Denton byelection is more than a local contest; it reflects broader trends within British politics, particularly the rising influence of smaller parties amidst discontent with traditional power structures. As Labour strives to maintain its foothold, the Green Party’s ascent and Reform UK’s challenge could signal a significant shift in the political landscape, revealing changing voter priorities and the potential for new alliances in future elections.
