In a surprising turn of events, Delcy Rodríguez, a self-described “Chavista” revolutionary and former deputy to ousted dictator Nicolás Maduro, has been installed as Venezuela’s interim president. This decision by the Trump administration has left many observers puzzled, as it appears to go against the US’s previous support for opposition leader María Corina Machado, whose movement is widely believed to have won the 2024 presidential election.
According to Charles Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Venezuela, the Trump administration has prioritised “stability over democracy” in its approach to the Venezuelan crisis. By keeping the “dictatorial regime in place without the dictator,” Washington has effectively endorsed the continuation of Maduro’s authoritarian system, albeit under new leadership.
The speed and apparent ease with which Maduro was removed and Rodríguez installed have led some to speculate that the former vice president may have been privy to the plan. However, Phil Gunson, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, argues that this conspiracy theory does not hold up under closer scrutiny, given the significant power still wielded by Maduro’s allies within the Venezuelan government.
Instead, the decision to back Rodríguez appears to have been driven by warnings that installing Machado could result in dangerous levels of instability. A report by the International Crisis Group in October cautioned that “the risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be downplayed,” as elements of the security forces could launch a guerilla war against the new authorities.
This pragmatic approach, which prioritises “hard-nosed realism” over democratic ideals, has been criticised by some observers. Gunson argues that “ordinary Venezuelans are getting screwed as usual,” while the prospects for genuine progress towards a democratic transition remain uncertain.
The Trump administration has outlined a three-stage plan for Venezuela, starting with the stabilisation of the country and the marketing of 30-50 million barrels of oil under US supervision. This would be followed by a “process of reconciliation,” including amnesties for opposition forces and the release of political prisoners. The final phase, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would be a “transition,” though the details remain unclear.
Ultimately, the decision to back Rodríguez over the opposition’s preferred candidate, Machado, highlights the Trump administration’s pragmatic approach to the Venezuelan crisis. While this may provide short-term stability, the long-term implications for democracy in the country remain a source of concern for many.
