In a move that has sent shockwaves through the Labour Party, leader Keir Starmer’s decision to prevent Andy Burnham from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election has intensified calls for a leadership challenge. With the crucial vote set for 26 February, the stakes are high, and many see this election as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership amid plummeting poll numbers.
A Controversial Decision
The Labour Party has announced that Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia will be the party’s candidate for the upcoming by-election. This announcement comes as a surprise to many, particularly as it sidelines Burnham, a prominent figure within the party and the widely regarded “King in the North.” The decision has raised eyebrows among MPs, who argue that the timing of the by-election only accelerates the potential for leadership challenges within Labour.
Starmer’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) voted against allowing Burnham to stand, a decision that has been interpreted as a move to stave off a leadership contest. Critics suggest that the decision was motivated by fear of Burnham’s rising popularity, especially as both the party and Starmer’s approval ratings wane.
Rising Speculation Among Rivals
In the wake of Burnham’s exclusion, speculation surrounding potential successors to Starmer has surged. Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner have emerged as frontrunners. Rayner notably declared, “I’m not dead yet,” hinting at her willingness to contest the leadership should the opportunity arise.
One long-serving Labour MP remarked, “Colleagues were looking at something after the local elections, but the by-election has brought the timetable forward. Why wait?” This sentiment reflects a growing impatience within the party, as members grapple with the implications of Starmer’s decision.
Internal Party Frictions
The fallout from Starmer’s decision has not only sparked speculation over leadership but has also deepened rifts within the party. Steve Rotheram, the Mayor of Liverpool, lambasted the government, accusing “gutless people” in Downing Street of perpetuating divisive briefings against Burnham. Rotheram’s comments highlight the frustration among Labour figures who feel that the party’s internal conflicts are undermining its unity and effectiveness.
Moreover, Labour faces the looming threat of tactical voting in the Gorton and Denton constituency, reminiscent of the disastrous Caerphilly scenario, where Labour’s long-standing hold on the seat crumbled due to voters supporting other parties to block Reform. Party strategists are now frantically working to prevent a repeat of that outcome, knowing how critical every vote will be.
The Road Ahead
As the by-election approaches, Labour MPs are under pressure to galvanise support for Stogia. However, enthusiasm appears to be waning, with some MPs expressing reluctance to campaign vigorously after Burnham’s exclusion. “I will go once to say I have done it, but I am not filled with enthusiasm to help out in a contest we are going to lose,” one MP candidly admitted.
Despite the chaos, some ministers argue that the decision to block Burnham will allow the party to move forward and quell the leadership speculations that have plagued it in recent months. However, many believe that this decisive action has only shifted the spotlight onto Starmer’s other potential challengers, particularly Streeting, who is now viewed as a more viable contender.
Why it Matters
The unfolding situation within the Labour Party is a critical indicator of its future direction. As internal divisions mount and external pressures grow, the party’s ability to present a united front ahead of the local elections on 7 May will be paramount. The Gorton and Denton by-election has become more than just a local contest; it represents a pivotal moment for Labour’s leadership and its prospects in the next general election. With the potential for significant shifts in power dynamics, the outcome could reshape the future of the party and its standing in British politics.
