As the global order undergoes a seismic shift, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese finds himself navigating the treacherous waters of an unpredictable US leadership under President Donald Trump. Faced with a world that is no longer what it used to be, Albanese must strike a delicate balance, acknowledging the realities of the changing landscape while preserving the country’s vital alliance with its most important security partner.
The recent speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos has sent shockwaves through the political corridors of Canberra. Carney’s stark declaration that the Trump era represents a “rupture, not a transition” in the international rules-based order has resonated deeply, serving as a wake-up call for the Albanese government.
However, the response from the Australian government has been cautious and measured. Unwilling to engage in public confrontation with the mercurial US president, Albanese and his senior cabinet colleagues have opted for carefully crafted talking points, stressing that the future of Greenland, a territory coveted by Trump, is a matter for the people of Denmark and their government to decide.
This diplomatic tightrope-walking reflects Albanese’s recognition that while the world is changing, the US alliance remains a critical component of Australia’s defence and foreign policy. The government’s decision to quietly send an additional $1.5 billion to the US last month to keep the Aukus submarine deal on track, despite growing concerns about the project, underscores this delicate balancing act.
Yet, as John McCarthy, a former Australian ambassador to Washington, has noted, an “unsentimental assessment” of Aukus is necessary, moving beyond the “sanctification” of the US alliance. This conversation, though difficult, is crucial as Australia seeks to develop a new mindset for greater strategic autonomy that could outlast Trump’s remaining time in office.
Albanese’s approach of maintaining an “even keel” with the unpredictable US commander-in-chief is a prudent one, but it must be accompanied by a willingness to acknowledge the shifting global landscape. Taking down the proverbial “sign” and recognizing that the world is not what it used to be is the first honest step towards crafting a foreign policy that can navigate the turbulent waters ahead.
As middle powers like Australia grapple with the implications of the crumbling rules-based order, the need for regional cooperation and collective action has never been more pressing. Albanese’s efforts to strengthen ties with like-minded leaders, such as Britain’s Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron, offer a glimmer of hope in these uncertain times.
The path forward may be fraught with challenges, but Albanese’s steady hand and willingness to adapt to the changing realities could prove crucial in safeguarding Australia’s interests and shaping the country’s role in the evolving global landscape.
