The highly anticipated documentary *Melania*, which offers an intimate look into the life of the former First Lady, is expected to have a lacklustre debut at the box office this weekend. With projections suggesting an opening weekend revenue of only £1 million to £5 million, the film’s financial performance raises questions about its appeal, especially given Amazon’s hefty £75 million investment in its production and marketing.
A Lack of Enthusiasm
*Melania* is set to premiere at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., today before its official release worldwide on Friday. Despite President Donald Trump endorsing the documentary as a “MUST WATCH” and claiming tickets are “selling out, FAST,” CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten offers a starkly different prediction. He states that the film has a 63% likelihood of receiving a dismal rating below 20% on Rotten Tomatoes, a troubling sign for the production team.
“Being below 20% isn’t great,” Enten remarked during a segment on CNN’s *Erin Burnett OutFront*, emphasising the projected earnings. This forecast is particularly alarming when compared to the success of Michael Moore’s *Fahrenheit 9/11*, which generated nearly £24 million on its opening weekend in 2004, roughly equivalent to £41 million today when adjusted for inflation.
Marketing Misfire?
Enten further critiques the film’s promotional strategy, which included a £40 million acquisition cost and an additional £35 million earmarked for marketing. “Despite all the advertising efforts, it doesn’t appear that audiences are rushing to see it,” he remarked, highlighting a disconnect between the marketing push and public interest.
The film has not been without controversy, particularly surrounding its director, Brett Ratner, who has faced allegations of sexual misconduct. Though Ratner has denied all claims and has not been charged with a crime, this baggage could contribute to the film’s lukewarm reception.
Underwhelming Sales Reports
Social media has been abuzz with reports of disappointing ticket sales across the United States and the UK. Screenshots of nearly empty theatres in major cities, including Boston and New York City, have surfaced, contradicting Trump’s assertions of high demand. In the UK, Vue Cinemas’ chief executive noted that ticket sales have been “soft,” with only one ticket sold for a prime screening at London’s flagship Islington branch.
The film’s marketing narrative aimed to present Melania Trump as one of the most enigmatic figures in modern politics, promising insights into her relationship with her husband. However, early indicators suggest that the public may not be as eager to engage with her story as the filmmakers had hoped.
Why it Matters
The disappointing box office forecast for *Melania* reflects broader trends in public interest regarding political documentaries, particularly those tied to polarising figures. With Amazon’s substantial investment hinging on the film’s success, the outcome could have significant implications for future political projects and the media landscape. As audiences increasingly demand authenticity and relevance in storytelling, the performance of *Melania* may herald a shift in how such narratives are approached and marketed in the future.