The much-anticipated documentary *Melania*, chronicling the life of the former First Lady, is set to debut this weekend, but early projections suggest it may struggle to find an audience. Despite Amazon’s considerable investment of $75 million into both production and marketing, industry experts predict the film could earn a mere $1 million to $5 million during its opening weekend.
Low Expectations for Opening Weekend
Harry Enten, CNN’s polling analyst, did not mince words when discussing the film’s prospects on *Erin Burnett OutFront*. He indicated that *Melania* has a 63% chance of receiving a rating below 20% on Rotten Tomatoes. “That’s not good, Erin. That’s not good, being below 20 percent,” Enten remarked, highlighting the stark contrast between the film’s lavish budget and its anticipated box office performance.
The documentary will premiere at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., before rolling out to theatres worldwide. While former President Donald Trump has dubbed the film a “MUST WATCH” and claimed tickets are “selling out, FAST,” the reality appears to be far less rosy. Enten even compared the film unfavourably to Michael Moore’s *Fahrenheit 9/11*, which raked in $23.9 million during its opening weekend in 2004—a figure that, when adjusted for inflation, translates to around $41 million today. “Melania, not anywhere close,” he quipped.
Criticism Over Marketing and Timing
The underwhelming pre-release buzz has raised eyebrows, especially given Amazon’s substantial financial commitment. The company forked out $40 million to acquire the documentary’s rights, in addition to a further $35 million in marketing. “All of the advertising, all of that jazz to try and build up that audience, which right now doesn’t seem like they’re rushing to actually see it,” Enten noted.
Controversy has also surrounded the film’s premiere, which took place shortly after a tragic incident in Minnesota where an ICU nurse was fatally shot by a federal agent. The opulent event, attended by high-profile guests including Apple CEO Tim Cook and boxer Mike Tyson, has drawn criticism in light of the timing.
Mixed Reactions and Social Media Buzz
The film has been marketed as an intimate look at Melania Trump, offering insights into her enigmatic persona and relationship with her husband. In the trailer, she states, “Everyone wants to know, so here it is.” However, ticket sales data paints a different picture. Screenshots posted on social media reveal vast swathes of empty seats at major theatres across the United States, including in Boston and New York City. One user quipped, “Question: Is zero seats sold for ‘Melania’ on opening night at 7:30pm in Times Square bad, or is that normal?”
In the UK, ticket sales have also been described as “soft.” Tim Richards, CEO of Vue, reported that only one ticket had been sold for an afternoon screening at the flagship Islington branch in London, with just two booked for an evening showing.
Why it Matters
The lukewarm reception anticipated for *Melania* highlights the challenges faced by politically charged documentaries in today’s polarized climate. With significant resources devoted to its creation, the film’s struggle to attract viewers may reflect broader societal divisions regarding the former First Family. As the landscape of documentary filmmaking evolves, the reception of *Melania* could serve as a cautionary tale about the risks of investing heavily in politically-themed media without a clear understanding of audience sentiment.
