As unrest unfolds in the Middle East, particularly with the current conflict involving Iran, China finds itself assessing the long-term implications for its global ambitions. While the immediate effects of the war have not yet impacted its oil supplies, the country is apprehensive about the broader ramifications for its investments and economic strategy. With thousands of Communist Party delegates convening in Beijing to outline a roadmap for China’s economy, the situation raises critical questions about how the nation will adapt to shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Uncertainty
China currently has enough oil reserves to sustain its needs for several months. This buffer allows Beijing to rely on its neighbour, Russia, should the situation worsen. However, the longer the conflict persists, the more precarious China’s energy security becomes, particularly if shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. Philip Shetler-Jones, an expert from the Royal United Services Institute, warns that ongoing instability could hinder economic flows to regions like Africa, where Chinese investments have been significant.
“A prolonged period of turmoil and insecurity in the Middle East will disrupt other regions of importance for China,” Shetler-Jones stated, highlighting the interconnected nature of global economic systems. The potential for wider instability poses a threat to China’s longer-term strategic interests.
The Fragile Sino-Iranian Relationship
Historically, China and Iran have cultivated a partnership characterised by mutual benefit rather than ideological alignment. The foundations of this relationship were solidified during Xi Jinping’s visit to Tehran in 2016, culminating in a 25-year strategic partnership agreement in 2021, which included promises of substantial Chinese investment in Iranian infrastructure. However, analysts suggest that the actual investment has fallen short of expectations, with many of the oil imports allegedly disguised to evade sanctions.
China’s imports of Iranian crude oil reached approximately 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for about 12% of its total imports. Reports indicate that Iran has significant volumes of oil stored in floating and bonded facilities in Asia. Despite their apparent cooperation, the relationship is largely transactional, lacking the depth typically associated with true alliances.
“This is a fragile basis for a relationship,” noted Professor Kerry Brown from King’s College London. “China’s interests in Iran are more about utilising Iran as a counterbalance against the US than any genuine allegiance.”
A Cautious Approach to Conflict
China’s response to the conflict has been measured, advocating for a ceasefire while condemning the actions of the US and Israel against Iran. Foreign Minister Wang Yi labelled the strikes as “unacceptable,” reflecting China’s desire to position itself as a stabilising force amid global tensions. However, the limitations of China’s influence are evident, as it remains sidelined while the US demonstrates its capacity to shape global outcomes.
“China is trying to position itself as a responsible counterbalance to the US,” Shetler-Jones explained, but the reality remains that its capabilities do not match those of the US superpower status. “It is not equipped to protect its friends against this kind of action, even if it wanted to.”
Despite these challenges, China may seek to mediate discussions in the region, having already engaged with officials in Oman and France to facilitate dialogue, highlighting its interest in playing a constructive role.
Implications of US Policy
The unpredictability of US foreign policy under President Trump adds another layer of complexity for China. The impending presidential visit raises questions about the direction of US-China relations amidst the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East. Analysts suggest this meeting may provide insights into how the US will approach other geopolitical flashpoints, including Taiwan.
While some in China perceive an opportunity to leverage the situation against US interests, the erratic nature of US actions presents a dilemma. “I don’t think China wants a world that’s dominated by the US, but they don’t really want a world where the US is such an unstable actor,” Professor Brown remarked, emphasising the delicate balance Beijing must maintain.
Why it Matters
The ongoing conflict in Iran is not merely a regional issue; it reverberates through the fabric of global economic and political relations, impacting China’s strategic calculations. As Beijing navigates this uncertainty, it must contend with the potential for increased instability in the Middle East, which could disrupt its economic ambitions and influence in other regions. The situation poses a critical test for China as it seeks to assert its role on the world stage while managing the complexities of its relationships with both allies and adversaries.
