As the New START treaty approaches its expiration on Thursday, the spectre of a renewed nuclear arms race looms large over international relations. This pivotal agreement, signed in 2010, has been a cornerstone of nuclear disarmament efforts between the United States and Russia, capping the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each nation at 1,550. Its cessation signals a troubling shift in the landscape of global arms control.
The End of an Era in Arms Control
The New START treaty has long been regarded as a vital mechanism for fostering transparency and accountability between the two nuclear superpowers. By facilitating data sharing, regular notifications, and on-site inspections, the treaty played a crucial role in mitigating the risks of miscalculations that could lead to conflict. Its expiration effectively dismantles the cooperative framework that emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War.
Pope Leo has called for the renewal of the treaty, emphasising the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to prevent an escalation of nuclear tensions. His remarks reflect a widespread concern that the current geopolitical climate necessitates every possible measure to avert a new arms race.
Historical Context of Nuclear Agreements
The New START treaty succeeded the original Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which was established in 1991 between the US and the Soviet Union. This foundational agreement imposed strict limits on nuclear arsenals, barring each country from deploying more than 6,000 warheads. However, with the decline of such treaties, a pattern of increasing military posturing is emerging.
Other significant arms control frameworks have also been abandoned or fallen into disrepair, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty. The latter permitted unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories, effectively promoting transparency in military activities.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the former head of the British armed forces, has publicly warned that the disintegration of these treaties poses a serious threat to global security. He notes that the current trajectory of international relations, marked by the resurgence of nuclear armament, is deeply alarming.
The Current Landscape of Nuclear Capabilities
With the New START treaty on the verge of lapsing, both the US and Russia are actively modernising their nuclear forces. This arms race is compounded by the development of cutting-edge military technology, including long-range hypersonic missiles capable of evading traditional defence systems. Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), underscores the implications of these advancements, noting that both nations are compelled to enhance their strategic capabilities.
Russia’s recent innovations, such as the Poseidon undersea autonomous torpedo and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, underscore the competitive atmosphere. Meanwhile, the US has been pursuing initiatives to bolster its defences against long-range threats, adding to the tension.
The prospect of a future arms control treaty appears dim. Diplomatic dialogue surrounding nuclear disarmament has stalled, with previous discussions between US and Russian leaders yielding little progress. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly characterised by a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and a diminishing commitment to disarmament.
Why it Matters
The expiration of the New START treaty heralds a new era of uncertainty in global security. As the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals remain unchecked, the risk of miscalculation and escalation rises. The absence of a comprehensive arms control agreement not only threatens the balance of power but also emboldens other nations to pursue their own nuclear ambitions. In a world already fraught with geopolitical tensions, the potential for a renewed arms race poses an existential risk that cannot be overlooked.
