The expiration of the New START treaty, a pivotal agreement regulating nuclear arms between the United States and Russia, has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of an arms race between the two nations. Signed in 2010, this treaty imposed strict limits on the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems, but its lapse on Thursday has removed a significant barrier against the unchecked expansion of arsenals at a time when global tensions are at a peak.
The Landscape of Nuclear Arms Control
The New START treaty mandated that both countries maintain their nuclear warheads to a cap of 1,550 and restricted the number of deployed delivery systems, including missiles and bombers, to 700. With the treaty’s termination, the US and Russia—who together possess approximately 85 per cent of the world’s strategic nuclear weapons—are now unbound by the previous constraints. This situation has the potential to ignite a new chapter of nuclear competition reminiscent of the Cold War era.
However, experts suggest that an immediate arms race may not be inevitable. Following the treaty’s expiration, there have been indications from both Washington and Moscow of a desire to engage in dialogue, aiming to salvage some form of cooperative framework. While no formal agreement has been reached, the possibility remains that informal understanding could help mitigate risks.
In a statement on his social media platform, former President Donald Trump called for the development of a new, modernised treaty. He expressed concerns about the inadequacies of the New START agreement, describing it as “badly negotiated” and highlighting its alleged violations. Conversely, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the negative implications of the treaty’s end but expressed a willingness to engage in discussions with the US.
Constraints Still in Play
Despite the absence of formal limits, there are still smaller frameworks in place that may help prevent an unrestrained arms race. Ankit Panda, author of *The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon*, notes that while there are currently no quantitative caps on warhead numbers, other agreements—such as the 1988 ballistic missile launch notifications—remain in effect. These arrangements serve as critical mechanisms to avoid accidental escalation into nuclear conflict.
Panda further elaborated on the contemporary production capabilities of the US, indicating that while the country has around 1,900 non-deployed warheads in reserve, the current production rate pales in comparison to Cold War levels. He cited the ambitious goal of reaching 30 plutonium pits by 2028, a far cry from the 2,000 pits produced during the height of the Cold War in the 1960s.
Looking Ahead: Domestic and International Implications
The trajectory of nuclear arms control is uncertain, with experts warning against complacency. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, previously cautioned in 2017 that growing tensions between the West and Russia could lead to a new Cold War, as both sides move away from established nuclear agreements.
Matt Korda, from the Federation of American Scientists, points out that the current economic and military challenges faced by both nations could limit their appetite for a nuclear arms expansion. Given the strains on Russia’s nuclear enterprises and its ongoing commitments in Ukraine, a rapid escalation in arms production may not be in its national interest.
Why it Matters
The dissolution of the New START treaty marks a pivotal moment in international arms control, with far-reaching implications for global security. While immediate fears of a full-scale arms race may be tempered by existing frameworks and economic realities, the absence of formal agreements raises the stakes in an already volatile geopolitical landscape. As tensions simmer, the world watches closely, hoping for renewed dialogue that could pave the way for a more stable nuclear future.
