OPEC has revised its projections for global oil demand, predicting a drop of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. This forecast reflects ongoing adjustments in production strategies among OPEC+ members and highlights the complexities of the current oil market.
Significant Shift in Demand Forecast
According to OPEC’s latest monthly oil report, the anticipated average demand for crude from the wider OPEC+ coalition will stand at 42.20 million bpd in the second quarter, down from 42.60 million bpd in the first quarter. Notably, these figures remain unchanged from last month’s assessments, indicating a stabilisation in OPEC’s outlook amid fluctuating market conditions.
The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC member countries alongside Russia and other allies, has been navigating the balance between production cuts and increases since last year. Following a prolonged period of output reductions, the group paused its production increases at the start of 2026, as forecasts suggested a potential oversupply in the market.
Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting
OPEC+ is set to convene on March 1, where representatives from eight member nations will deliberate on the future of production levels. The key agenda will be whether to resume output hikes in April, a decision that could significantly impact global oil prices and supply dynamics.
OPEC’s report maintains its longer-term projections, anticipating a rise in world oil demand of 1.34 million bpd in 2027 and an increase of 1.38 million bpd this year. Interestingly, OPEC’s forecast for 2026 reflects a more optimistic view than that of other industry analysts, including those from the International Energy Agency.
Production Trends Among OPEC+ Members
In January 2026, OPEC+ reported a collective output of 42.45 million bpd, marking a decline of 439,000 bpd from December 2025. This drop was largely attributed to reduced production in key countries such as Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. Such adjustments underscore the ongoing challenges faced by OPEC+ in managing supply in the face of varying global demands.
The strategic decisions made by OPEC+ members are critical not only for their economies but also for the broader global market, where oil prices are influenced by shifts in supply and demand.
Why it Matters
The projected decline in oil demand signals potential challenges ahead for OPEC+ as they navigate the complexities of a recovering global economy and the ongoing push for sustainable energy sources. As nations continue to grapple with energy transitions and geopolitical tensions, the decisions made in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the oil market and its impact on consumers worldwide.
