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As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, the prospect of military action looms large. Should diplomatic efforts fail and President Trump authorise a strike, the ramifications could be profound and varied. Analysts have outlined seven potential scenarios that could unfold in the wake of such an event, each with significant implications for regional stability and international relations.
A Surgical Strike: The Optimistic Outlook
The most hopeful scenario envisages targeted strikes by US air and naval forces, primarily aimed at military installations belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and other strategic sites related to its nuclear ambitions. In this scenario, minimal civilian casualties might lead to the collapse of the current regime and the emergence of a democratic government that reintegrates into the global community.
However, history raises doubts about the feasibility of this outcome. Previous Western interventions in Iraq and Libya, while dismantling oppressive regimes, resulted in prolonged chaos rather than the establishment of stable democracies. The situation in Syria, which managed to overthrow its government without foreign military support in 2024, casts further uncertainty on the likelihood of a smooth transition in Iran.
The Venezuelan Model: Regime Resilience
Another possibility is that the current Iranian regime endures but is compelled to moderate its policies. This “Venezuelan model” suggests that while the government remains intact, it would be forced to reduce its support for militant groups across the Middle East, scale back its nuclear and missile programmes, and ease its suppression of dissent.
Yet, this scenario appears less likely given the Iranian leadership’s historical resistance to change. Over nearly five decades, the regime has demonstrated a remarkable ability to maintain its grip on power despite widespread discontent.
Military Rule: A Shift in Power Dynamics
A collapse of the regime could lead to the establishment of military rule, with IRGC leaders taking centre stage. This scenario seems plausible, considering the regime’s unpopularity and the ongoing waves of protests that have eroded its authority. However, a strong security apparatus remains firmly entrenched, willing to deploy extreme measures to protect its interests.
In such a scenario, the aftermath of US strikes could see Iran governed by a military faction prioritising stability over democratic reforms, perpetuating the cycle of repression amid ongoing civil unrest.
Retaliation: Iran’s Countermeasures
Iran has made it abundantly clear that it would retaliate against any US military action. While the Iranian military may not match the might of the US, it possesses an array of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are hidden in fortified locations. The potential for Iran to target US bases in Bahrain and Qatar, or even critical infrastructure in neighbouring countries perceived as complicit in an attack, raises significant concerns.
The 2019 drone assault on Saudi Aramco serves as a stark reminder of Iran’s capabilities and the vulnerabilities faced by its regional adversaries. Gulf Arab nations, allied with the US, are understandably anxious about the repercussions of potential military action.
Escalation in the Gulf: Strategic Mining and Attacks
The prospect of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz poses a substantial threat to global shipping and oil supply chains. Historically, Iran has resorted to such tactics during previous conflicts, and its recent military exercises suggest a readiness to disrupt international commerce.
Additionally, the potential for a “swarm attack” on US naval vessels raises alarms. This tactic, involving the deployment of numerous drones and fast boats, could overwhelm even the most sophisticated naval defences. The sinking of a US warship would represent a significant military setback and an unprecedented humiliation for the United States.
Chaos and Humanitarian Crisis: The Worst-Case Scenario
The most dire outcome would be a complete breakdown of governance in Iran, leading to widespread chaos. Such a scenario could mirror the devastating civil wars seen in Syria and Libya, with various ethnic groups vying for power amid a vacuum of authority.
While many in the region would welcome the fall of the Islamic Republic, the resulting instability could unleash a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced by violence. The spectre of a failed state in the heart of the Middle East is a scenario that neighbours like Saudi Arabia and Qatar watch with trepidation.
Why it Matters
The potential for US military action against Iran carries profound implications not just for the region, but for global security as a whole. Each scenario underscores the delicate balance of power in the Middle East, where the stakes are high and the consequences of miscalculation could reverberate far beyond Iran’s borders. As the situation develops, the international community must remain vigilant, recognising that the path forward is fraught with uncertainty and peril.
