Despite a sharp decline in net migration to the UK over the past few years, a majority of voters wrongly believe that immigration is on the rise, according to exclusive polling data shared with The Update Desk. The findings suggest a growing “credibility gap” between public perception and the government’s efforts to control the country’s borders.
The poll, conducted by the think tank More in Common, revealed that two-thirds of UK voters believe immigration is increasing, even though net migration has fallen by more than two-thirds since the pandemic peak in 2023. This disconnect is particularly pronounced among supporters of the right-wing Reform UK party, with four in five believing immigration has grown.
The public’s lack of confidence in the government’s ability to manage immigration has also grown, with three-quarters of voters saying they have little or no confidence in the authorities, up from 70% last year. This is a significant challenge for the Labour administration, which has taken a hardline stance on the issue in recent months.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has promised the “most substantial reform to the UK’s asylum system in a generation,” including measures such as making refugees wait 20 years to become British citizens and returning them to their home countries if conditions improve. However, these proposals have faced fierce opposition from some Labour MPs.
The polling suggests that the highly visible issue of small boat crossings in the English Channel remains a critical factor in shaping public perception, with 79% of voters wanting the government to focus on stopping these vessels. In reality, those arriving on small boats make up less than 5% of the overall number of people coming to the UK.
Migration minister Mike Tapp has claimed that the government’s plans to prioritise British workers over overseas labour are “paying off,” pointing to a sharp decline in visa applications. However, Labour MP Kim Johnson warned that this approach risks leaving the health and social care sectors in crisis and fuelling the rise of divisive rhetoric.
Experts say that until the government can close the “credibility gap” between the public’s perception and the actual data on immigration, the issue is likely to persist as a political headache for the Labour administration.
