Brazil is on track to achieve an unprecedented coffee harvest in 2026, with projections indicating an output of 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags. This figure represents a remarkable 17.1 per cent rise from last year’s yield, according to a recent report from the national crop agency, Conab. Despite this surge in production, coffee prices are anticipated to remain elevated due to escalating global demand.
Surge in Arabica Production
The upcoming harvest is particularly noteworthy for Arabica coffee, which is expected to increase by more than 20 per cent to reach 44.1 million bags. This growth is largely attributed to the biennial “on-year” cycle that Arabica beans follow. Conab also forecasts a 6.4 per cent rise in robusta coffee production, projecting an output of 22.1 million bags.
Conab’s optimistic outlook is grounded in improved weather patterns throughout the growing season, alongside advancements in agricultural practices and technology. These factors have collectively enhanced productivity, with overall yields expected to climb by 12.4 per cent to 34.2 bags per hectare. This marks a significant improvement compared to the previous harvest, which yielded 56.5 million bags, and the former national record of 63.1 million bags set in 2020.
Regional Highlights
Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading producer of Arabica coffee, is forecasted to see its total coffee production—including some canephora varieties—rise by 26 per cent to 32.4 million bags. This increase is credited to improved rainfall distribution and healthier plants in the region, according to Conab’s analysis. Meanwhile, Espirito Santo, the top producer of canephora, is also expected to benefit from favourable weather, with anticipated output increasing by 9 per cent to 19 million bags.
Prices Remain High Despite Record Output
While the surge in coffee production is promising, Conab warns that prices are likely to remain high. The agency cited ongoing consumer demand as a primary factor influencing market prices. “For the 2026 cycle, coffee prices are expected to remain high, even with expectations of record production in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter, and with prospects for a good harvest in Vietnam,” Conab stated.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supports this outlook, forecasting global coffee consumption to hit a record 173.9 million bags during the current cycle. Simultaneously, ending stocks, which serve as a buffer between supply and demand, are expected to decline for a fifth consecutive year to 20.1 million bags.
Why it Matters
The anticipated rise in Brazil’s coffee output is significant not just for local farmers but for the global coffee market as a whole. Despite the record harvest, persistent high prices signal a complex interplay between supply and demand driven by consumer trends and economic factors. For coffee lovers worldwide, these developments could mean a continued strain on wallets, even as Brazil’s farmers experience a bumper crop. The situation underscores the vital importance of sustainable farming practices and market responsiveness in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
