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As political rhetoric escalates and military posturing intensifies, fears surrounding US intentions towards Canada are resurfacing. The echoes of a long-forgotten military strategy, known as War Plan Red, are resonating in the current geopolitical climate, particularly under the administration of Donald Trump. This plan, initially drafted in the 1930s, outlined a hypothetical invasion of Canada in the event of conflict with Britain, and its relevance is being reconsidered as Trump’s foreign policy increasingly adopts an aggressive tone.
Historical Context of War Plan Red
Formulated in 1927 and ratified in 1930, War Plan Red was a contingency plan developed by US military strategists who feared Britain might engage in hostilities against the United States, with Canada as the likely battleground. The plan envisaged a swift assault involving poison gas, the destruction of infrastructure, and rapid military advances to neutralise Canadian resistance.
American military analysts believed that Canada’s proximity and sparse population would lead to a swift capitulation. As noted by Thomas Homer-Dixon, a prominent Canadian conflict researcher, the plan exemplifies a troubling historical narrative that positions Canada as vulnerable, reliant on US goodwill that may no longer be guaranteed.
Trump’s Provocative Rhetoric
The revival of these historical anxieties comes as Donald Trump’s administration has adopted a notably aggressive stance towards both allies and adversaries. In early 2026, Trump’s government made headlines by announcing military interventions aimed at Venezuela, and subsequently discussing the strategic value of Greenland, a territory controlled by Denmark. This shift in US foreign policy reflects a blend of economic nationalism and militaristic ambition.
In a recent social media post, Trump even shared an altered image of the US flag superimposed over Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela, further fuelling anxieties about his intentions regarding Canadian sovereignty. His remarks, made during discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, included claims that the border between the two nations is merely an “artificially drawn line” that could be redrawn through force.
Canadian Reactions and Strategic Responses
The implications of Trump’s provocative statements have not gone unnoticed in Canada. Lawmakers have condemned his comments, expressing concern over a potential shift in US policy that could threaten Canada’s sovereignty. A poll conducted in 2025 revealed that nearly half of Canadians perceive a military attack from the US as a possibility within the next five years, highlighting the pervasive anxiety surrounding national security.
In response to these threats, the Canadian military has begun modelling potential invasion scenarios, advocating for guerrilla tactics reminiscent of those employed in Afghanistan. The Canadian government is also contemplating a significant expansion of its military forces, potentially increasing the supplementary reserve to 300,000 personnel. This shift underscores a growing recognition of the need for a robust national defence strategy in the face of perceived aggression.
A Call for Solidarity and Preparedness
As discussions about military infrastructure and preparedness intensify, experts like Homer-Dixon argue that Canada must strengthen its relationships with allies, particularly in Scandinavia, to bolster collective security efforts. He warns that the historical narrative of US dominance is re-emerging, and Canada must adapt its strategies accordingly.
The potential for a “whole-of-society” response has gained traction, with initiatives proposed for civil defence training and increased military readiness. The Cascade Institute has suggested various funding strategies for national service programmes, indicating a serious commitment to enhancing Canada’s defensive capabilities.
Why it Matters
The resurgence of interest in War Plan Red and the current political climate underscore a critical juncture for Canada’s national security. As the US adopts a more aggressive foreign policy stance, Canadians must grapple with the implications of their neighbour’s ambitions. The growing fears of military aggression and potential territorial claims highlight the fragility of Canadian sovereignty, necessitating a reevaluation of diplomatic and military strategies. Ultimately, this situation not only tests Canada’s resilience but also reveals the complexities of its relationship with the United States, a partnership that may be more precarious than it has appeared for decades.
