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In recent remarks, Prime Minister Mark Carney asserted that the federal government’s initiatives aimed at shielding industries from U.S. tariffs have successfully safeguarded thousands of jobs across various sectors in Canada. However, as analysts sift through the numbers, questions arise regarding the accuracy of these claims and the complexities involved in measuring their true impact on the labour market.
Government Measures in Focus
Since March 2025, the Canadian government has rolled out several strategies designed to bolster industries and workers facing the brunt of U.S. tariffs. These initiatives include simplifying access to employment insurance, establishing substantial funds to support companies in retaining their workforce, and promoting the purchase of Canadian products.
During a visit to an auto parts manufacturing facility in Woodbridge, Ontario, on February 5, 2026, Carney lauded what he described as “the most comprehensive set of trade resilience measures in Canada’s history.” He claimed that these measures have led to the creation and preservation of 18,000 jobs in sectors such as steel, aluminium, lumber, and automotive, and that they have prevented over 20,000 layoffs. Furthermore, he stated that income support had been extended to more than 6,000 workers, with an anticipated total of 190,000 beneficiaries, particularly within the automotive industry.
The Challenge of Verification
In the wake of Carney’s statements, The Canadian Press reached out to the Prime Minister’s Office for the basis of his figures. The next day, the request was passed on to Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC). After a series of deadline extensions, ESDC provided limited insight into the origins of Carney’s statistics.
According to ESDC, the government’s work-sharing programme data indicated that approximately 20,000 layoffs had been averted, correlating closely with Carney’s assertion. As of February 7, 2026, the programme had reportedly prevented 18,621 job losses since March 2025. This programme supports workers whose hours have been reduced due to business downturns, providing necessary financial assistance to help sustain employment.
Conversely, the ESDC reported that 8,360 individuals had accessed employment insurance for the first time since April 1, 2025, although these figures were not segmented by industry. Notably, the specific number of 18,000 jobs “created and protected” by the government’s initiatives was not substantiated in the ESDC’s response.
Expert Insights on Job Impact
Tony Stillo, Canadian economics director at Oxford Economics, emphasised that while there are various methodologies for estimating job impacts, the accuracy of these models can vary significantly. He noted that direct financial support, such as through the work-sharing programme, relies on regular payroll data from participating companies, enabling clearer tracking of job retention.
However, Stillo cautioned that induced job impacts—those resulting from broader economic effects, such as decreased spending by workers—are much harder to quantify. He advised focusing on directly verifiable employment statistics rather than secondary effects, which may skew the overall picture.
Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, acknowledged the complexities inherent in assessing the effectiveness of such government policies. He pointed out that without access to the underlying methodologies used by Ottawa, evaluating the validity of Carney’s figure of 18,000 jobs is challenging. Moreover, he highlighted that job estimates are often based on historical data comparisons, making them inherently less precise.
Current Employment Landscape
Statistics Canada reported that employment in sectors sensitive to tariffs had declined by 51,000 positions year-over-year as of January 2026. Stillo remarked on the difficulties faced in tracking the job market’s response to the ongoing trade conflict, particularly given discrepancies that have arisen between various employment surveys.
Despite these challenges, he noted that the overall economic environment remains fragile, hindered by uncertainties stemming from the trade war. Nevertheless, he identified some positive indicators, including the supportive monetary policy from the Bank of Canada, which, alongside other fiscal measures, has provided a degree of stability to the economy.
Why it Matters
The debate surrounding the effectiveness of government interventions in protecting jobs amid trade turmoil is critical for understanding Canada’s economic resilience. As policymakers assess the ongoing impact of their programmes, the veracity of the figures presented by leaders like Carney becomes paramount. Accurately measuring job retention and creation not only informs future strategies but also shapes public confidence in government action during challenging economic times. The results of this scrutiny will ultimately influence how Canada navigates the complexities of global trade relations and domestic economic health in the years to come.
