The Iranian people are reeling from the devastating impact of the state’s violent suppression of recent protests, leaving the opposition grieving, disarrayed, and deeply divided on the path forward. As the country grapples with the aftermath of the government’s brutal crackdown, the future of Iran’s struggle for change remains uncertain.
The scale of the repression has been unprecedented, with Arash Azizi, the author of “What Iranians Want,” describing the situation as “disastrous and numbing.” The vast majority of Iranians have not witnessed such brutality since the 1980s, with many having lost loved ones in the recent unrest.
The absence of communication due to a week-long blackout has further complicated the collective reflection on this tragedy within Iran, leaving the opposition in disarray. Some cling to the hope that former US President Donald Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham will still intervene, while others accuse them of betrayal and false promises that led protesters to the streets only to be met with violence.
At the heart of the debate is the role of Reza Pahlavi, the 65-year-old exiled son of the former Shah of Iran. Even anti-monarchists admit that chants for the return of the Shah have been prominent, although the depth of this support and its meaning remain contested. Pahlavi’s critics argue that he has failed to provide a coherent plan or leadership, and that his advisers appear to be intolerant, right-wing, and vengeful.
Pahlavi faces a significant credibility challenge, with Azizi accusing him of not having a plan to follow through on his calls for action. The tensions over Israel’s refusal to intervene are also apparent among Pahlavi’s closest advisers, who have called for vengeance not only against the Iranian state but also against those who advocated for negotiations.
The diverse opposition within and outside Iran remains divided, a perennial problem since the late 1990s. As the Iranian elite has fractured and protests have grown, Pahlavi has made several attempts to build opposition coalitions, but most have struggled with internal disagreements.
As the opposition grapples with the aftermath of the crackdown, Azizi hopes that the moral authority of those imprisoned within Iran, such as Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi and Mostafa Tajzadeh, will grow. The so-called “Republicans” now face the challenge of organizing a credible alternative to the current regime, a task they have consistently failed to accomplish thus far.
The road ahead for Iran’s opposition remains uncertain, with the state’s brutal suppression of dissent leaving deep scars and the opposition divided on the best path forward. The struggle for change in Iran continues, but the path to achieving it remains elusive.
