Canadians are feeling the heat of rising coffee prices, which have surged dramatically over the past year, reflecting a broader trend of food inflation. Recent figures from Statistics Canada reveal that the cost of coffee has soared by an average of 31 per cent as of December 2025 compared to the previous year. This stark increase contrasts sharply with the relatively modest five per cent rise in the prices of all food products and a mere 2.4 per cent uptick in overall goods and services during the same timeframe.
The Price Surge Explained
In December 2024, consumers paid an average of $7.12 for 340 grams of roasted or ground coffee. Just a year later, that price has jumped to $9.35. Despite these steep increases, Canadian coffee consumption remains robust. Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, observes, “We just like our morning kick. Perhaps it’s darker winters and shorter days, or the omnipresence of Tim Hortons — we have become a significant coffee culture. Canada is, and has been for some time, sort of a coffee-addicted nation.”
Climate Change and Its Impact
Several factors contribute to the rising prices at coffee shops and supermarkets, with climate change playing a crucial role. Coffee plants are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events, which have become more frequent due to climate change. Von Massow refers to coffee as “the canary in the coal mine for climate change,” indicating that shifts in temperature and weather patterns significantly affect coffee yields.
“Yields are going down, disease problems are happening, and we’re going to have to adjust where we’re producing coffee,” he adds. With demand remaining steady while production declines, the basic principles of supply and demand dictate that prices will continue to rise.
Extended droughts in key coffee-producing areas have drastically reduced crop yields over the past year, a primary reason for the current price spikes. However, there are signs of improvement in regions like Brazil, where improved weather conditions may lead to better harvests in the near future. Barry Prentice, director of the Transport Institute at the University of Manitoba, expresses cautious optimism: “The Brazilian market has been hit hard by drought. They’re now getting rains, and so coffee production looks like it’s coming back. This may be a two-year anomaly, and then we’ll get back to our more normal pricing.”
Tariffs and Their Role
Trade policies have also influenced coffee prices. Following a trade war initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump, tariffs were imposed on a variety of goods, including coffee. Although these tariffs were largely lifted in November 2025, the aftereffects linger. Canadian tariffs on U.S. products were also removed, and the current terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) mean that most imported coffee is exempt from tariffs.
However, the previous tariffs might still be affecting prices as older stock, which was subject to tariffs, remains in circulation. Von Massow elaborates, “In 2025, we saw an additional factor when Canada put retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., which included coffee. Some of our smaller roasters are buying coffee from brokers in the U.S. We’re burning through some of that inventory that came in under the tariffs, and now we’re hoping to see some relief from the tariff portion of those price increases.”
The Future of Coffee Production
The pressing question remains whether coffee producers can adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by climate change and fluctuating market dynamics. Von Massow anticipates that resilience-building measures will emerge in the coffee sector, especially as producers seek to overcome the impacts of climate variability. “If coffee is susceptible to slight temperature changes, we might see production moving to higher altitudes or regions that were previously unsuitable for coffee.”
These adaptations will take time, and the entire food supply chain is also under pressure to evolve in response to climate change’s impacts. “We’re starting to see the effects of climate change on the food system, and coffee is just one example. It’s a very sensitive plant that requires specific conditions to thrive,” Prentice concludes.
Why it Matters
The surge in coffee prices is not just a matter of consumer inconvenience; it reflects larger systemic issues within the global food supply chain, exacerbated by climate change and trade policies. As Canadians continue to enjoy their coffee despite the rising costs, the challenges facing producers highlight the need for sustainable practices and adaptive strategies to ensure that future generations can also savour their beloved brew without breaking the bank.
