As Keir Starmer prepares for his first official trip to China as Prime Minister, scheduled for later this week, the stakes could not be higher. This visit marks the first by a British leader since Theresa May’s trip to Beijing in 2018, a time when diplomatic ties were markedly less strained. Today, however, the UK finds itself navigating a complex landscape, rife with security concerns and economic interdependencies that complicate any straightforward engagement with the Chinese government.
The Tension Between Trade and Security
Starmer’s journey comes amidst heightened scrutiny of the UK’s relationship with China, a partnership that is increasingly viewed through the prism of national security and human rights. Recent revelations from the Foreign Office regarding a cyber-attack attributed to a Chinese group, alongside allegations of espionage linked to parliamentary researchers, have intensified public and political apprehension. These incidents underscore a broader unease about China’s activities within the UK, leaving Starmer to tread carefully as he considers the implications of his discussions in Beijing.
Despite these challenges, the UK’s economic ties with China are undeniable. The nation remains a critical player in global supply chains, and disengagement is not a viable option without significant repercussions for British businesses. The recent approval of a new Chinese embassy in London has ignited fierce debate, highlighting the polarised views on how best to manage this complex relationship.
China’s Growing Leverage
China’s position as the world’s second-largest economy enhances its bargaining power in any negotiations. Starmer will need to confront the reality that while the UK possesses substantial geopolitical clout—being a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power—it is also in a precarious position. China’s ambitions include not just economic cooperation but also a desire to diminish criticism regarding its domestic policies and to secure a more predictable engagement from the UK.
Over the past three decades, China has strategically expanded its influence globally, investing heavily in infrastructure and development projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This has allowed Beijing to position itself as a reliable partner, contrasting sharply with the often unpredictable nature of Western engagement. Starmer now faces the daunting task of identifying common ground with China while safeguarding the interests of the UK.
The Stakes for the UK
Starmer’s approach to this visit will be closely scrutinised, as it will reveal his vision for the UK’s role in an evolving world order. Is the UK to be seen as a bridge to Europe, a partner to the United States, or a nation struggling with its relevance on the global stage? The answers to these questions will shape not only Starmer’s premiership but also the future of British foreign policy.
The recent trade figures paint a stark picture: China is projected to achieve a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion this year, despite attempts by previous administrations to curtail its economic influence. This reality underscores the extent to which the UK relies on Chinese trade, limiting its capacity to take a hard stance on issues like human rights or security.
Why it Matters
Starmer’s upcoming visit to China presents a crucial opportunity for the UK to redefine its international strategy amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tension and economic interdependence. His ability to reconcile the competing demands of trade and security will not only impact bilateral relations but will also serve as a litmus test for the UK’s broader role on the world stage. With many waiting for clarity in Starmer’s vision, this trip could either solidify his leadership or expose the fractures in the UK’s foreign policy approach.
