As Labour’s internal dynamics heat up, Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to prevent Andy Burnham from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election raises significant concerns for the party in Greater Manchester. With Burnham’s potential candidacy seen as essential to countering Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the implications of this move could reverberate through Labour’s future electoral strategies.
The Stakes for Labour
Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, is widely viewed as the most formidable candidate Labour could field. Recent polling indicates that, should he enter the race, Labour would secure a four-point victory, whereas without him, Farage’s party could prevail by six points. The prospect of another Reform MP, particularly in the North West, is one Labour can ill afford, especially given the recent loss of their seat in Runcorn.
Despite this, Starmer’s reasoning is rooted in a strategic gamble. Allowing Burnham to run could lead to his resignation as mayor, triggering a potentially difficult election for a role that controls a substantial budget and significant devolved powers. The looming question for Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) was whether risking a parliamentary by-election defeat was preferable to losing the mayoralty to Reform.
A Calculated Risk
Starmer’s calculations also centre on his own leadership. With Burnham’s rising popularity contrasting sharply with Starmer’s dwindling approval ratings, there are fears that a by-election victory could position Burnham as a viable challenger for the party leadership. This internal power dynamic complicates an already precarious situation for Starmer, who once led the party to considerable success but now faces the spectre of declining support.
The NEC’s decision to block Burnham’s candidacy reflects a defensive strategy aimed at preserving party stability. However, this approach is not without its criticisms; many within the party believe it undermines the grassroots support that Burnham commands, which could be critical in future elections.
The Political Landscape
The broader political context complicates Labour’s position further. As the party struggles against both Reform on the right and the Greens on the left, it faces a fragmented electorate. Polls have shown Labour trailing in some areas, with support eroding as voters seek alternatives. Burnham’s popularity could have been a unifying force, but now that potential is stifled.
With Burnham’s application now firmly rejected, the question remains: what will be the fallout for Labour? Can the party navigate these choppy waters without alienating its base or losing ground to Reform?
Why it Matters
Starmer’s decision to veto Burnham’s candidacy in the Gorton and Denton by-election encapsulates the tensions within Labour as it grapples with leadership challenges and electoral strategy. The implications extend beyond a single by-election; they signal a party at a crossroads, facing not only the immediate threat of losing seats but also the deeper risks of internal dissent and leadership instability. How Labour responds to this situation could define its trajectory in the lead-up to future elections, making this moment critical for both Starmer and the party’s long-term viability.
