Keir Starmer’s first year as Prime Minister has been far from smooth sailing, with a series of missteps and controversies that have left his party and the public increasingly disillusioned.
The latest crisis came this week with a rebellion by Labour MPs over the government’s welfare reform bill, which has been described as a “meaningless shell.” This episode has laid bare deeper issues within Starmer’s administration, including questions about professional competence and a perceived lack of vision.
Starmer’s honeymoon period after Labour’s landslide victory in 2024 has well and truly ended. Just 34% of the electorate voted for his party last year, and that support has continued to erode, with Labour now polling at only 23% on average. One in three of its 2024 voters have already defected elsewhere.
Veteran political historian Anthony Seldon says no Prime Minister since 1945 has started as badly as Starmer. The welfare bill debacle has “turbocharged” other pressing questions, such as how Labour managed to squander so much support so quickly, and what the party can do to turn the situation around.
Starmer’s supporters will point to the immense challenges he has faced, from the war in Europe to economic stagnation. But these cannot be used as excuses. As one columnist notes, Starmer is an “analogue Prime Minister in a digital age” – and he urgently needs to articulate a clear vision for the country if he is to have any hope of salvaging his premiership.
The parallels with other troubled first-term governments, such as Thatcher’s and Blair’s, are clear. Both of those leaders ultimately recovered to win landslide victories. But the erosion of trust in politics today means Starmer may not be afforded the same opportunity.
Unless Starmer can quickly define his “certain idea of Britain” and inspire the public, his party – and the country – may well desert him. The voyage of Starmer’s Labour ship appears increasingly perilous.
