The United States has tightened its grip on the European Union’s energy supply, with US liquefied natural gas (LNG) now accounting for a staggering 59% of the EU’s total LNG imports, according to a new analysis. This growing reliance on American energy has created a precarious situation, as tensions with the Trump administration could potentially lead to higher consumer bills and supply disruptions.
The report, co-authored by the Clingendael Institute, the Ecologic Institute, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, highlights the dramatic shift in Europe’s energy landscape. In 2019, pipeline gas imports from Russia made up 60% of the EU’s gas imports, but by 2025, this share had plummeted to just 8%. Instead, the EU has become increasingly dependent on US LNG shipments, which surged by 61% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
This transition, driven in part by the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian pipelines, has left the EU vulnerable to the whims of the Trump administration. The US president has already threatened to use tariffs on trade with European allies in a bid to secure his acquisition of Greenland, a move that has raised concerns about Washington’s willingness to wield energy exports as a geopolitical tool.
“We have to acknowledge the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and look at Europe’s imports cautiously,” warned Professor Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. “At the moment, gas reserves in the EU are very low, the lowest in years, and lower than at the outset of the war in Ukraine. If we have a cold winter and tensions with the US, leading to further price increases and reserve depletion, we might see a really dramatic energy crisis in the coming months.”
The report argues that the EU must act quickly to address this vulnerability, as “energy – particularly gas – exports increasingly function as a tool of strategic leverage.” In the medium to long term, the authors suggest that Europe should “accelerate the transition to an efficient and modern energy system based on indigenous renewable sources” to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers.
The UK, now outside the EU’s single market, is equally exposed to these geopolitical risks. According to the report, the UK covered 50% of its gas demand with domestic production and 33% with imports from the EU in 2024, with the remaining 68% of its total LNG imports coming from the US.
As policymakers in Brussels grapple with the implications of this shift, the report serves as a stark warning about the need for Europe to diversify its energy sources and bolster its energy security in the face of an increasingly assertive and unpredictable Trump administration.
